* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/15/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 117 114 114 115 114 108 103 99 91 84 75 70 63 57 54 50 V (KT) LAND 120 117 114 114 115 114 108 103 99 91 84 75 70 63 57 54 50 V (KT) LGEM 120 115 111 109 108 107 103 93 78 67 58 51 45 39 33 27 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 6 3 3 1 4 4 5 3 10 11 21 23 29 22 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 -6 -3 -3 -2 2 7 10 7 -1 8 10 13 14 10 0 SHEAR DIR 299 357 22 54 45 145 207 225 291 282 272 260 273 279 270 265 263 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.3 27.7 27.4 26.4 25.9 25.4 25.0 25.0 25.7 25.5 25.5 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 149 150 148 148 142 138 127 121 116 111 112 120 117 117 121 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -52.0 -52.5 -52.8 -52.0 -52.5 -51.7 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 69 71 72 70 70 64 60 59 54 51 44 41 41 41 41 50 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 22 24 26 29 28 28 29 28 27 24 24 22 21 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 22 21 14 15 12 13 17 28 31 49 61 62 67 61 58 34 29 200 MB DIV 67 82 94 76 79 122 70 96 52 52 40 6 -18 -40 -15 -10 -1 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -6 -7 -5 -4 -2 0 4 8 5 8 7 7 6 10 14 LAND (KM) 1867 1918 1975 2036 2104 2247 2338 2282 2075 1899 1741 1609 1467 1283 1057 992 783 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.3 11.5 11.9 12.2 13.0 13.9 14.7 15.4 16.1 16.6 16.9 17.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 122.4 123.6 124.7 126.0 127.2 129.7 131.9 133.9 135.7 137.2 138.6 139.8 141.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 12 11 10 9 7 7 6 7 10 7 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 43 49 47 38 22 12 7 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -21. -30. -38. -46. -53. -57. -60. -62. -64. -68. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 11. 8. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 6. 4. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -6. -5. -6. -12. -17. -21. -29. -36. -45. -50. -57. -63. -66. -70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 11.0 122.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/15/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.02 0.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.79 4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.58 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 355.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.51 -2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.37 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.20 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.5% 17.3% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 6.1% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/15/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##