* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/15/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 126 125 124 120 116 111 105 96 87 81 74 68 61 55 49 44 V (KT) LAND 125 126 125 124 120 116 111 105 96 87 81 74 68 61 55 49 44 V (KT) LGEM 125 125 122 118 115 110 106 95 81 69 59 52 46 40 33 26 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 4 6 4 2 4 2 5 2 7 12 12 16 25 32 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 0 -4 -4 -1 0 8 10 10 3 2 15 16 18 11 9 SHEAR DIR 4 334 359 36 43 345 216 231 237 286 273 280 268 272 268 274 261 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.3 27.6 27.2 26.3 25.8 25.3 24.8 25.9 25.6 25.6 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 149 149 149 147 148 140 136 126 121 115 110 122 118 118 118 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.0 -52.6 -52.8 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -53.1 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 70 68 70 71 71 67 64 61 61 57 49 44 40 39 37 41 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 23 23 22 26 28 30 28 26 25 24 23 21 18 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 30 24 20 18 17 14 23 31 42 41 63 59 77 66 69 52 51 200 MB DIV 80 64 76 90 90 105 107 74 98 40 39 12 -9 -14 -50 -30 -26 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -7 -8 -7 -5 -1 -1 3 4 8 6 7 3 5 6 5 LAND (KM) 1803 1866 1917 1977 2044 2177 2281 2369 2238 2030 1845 1676 1508 1363 1158 1079 896 LAT (DEG N) 10.8 11.1 11.3 11.6 11.8 12.4 13.2 14.0 14.8 15.5 16.2 16.7 17.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.3 122.5 123.6 124.8 126.0 128.3 130.4 132.4 134.3 136.1 137.7 139.2 140.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 7 8 6 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 31 44 49 46 39 14 11 7 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -7. -14. -23. -33. -42. -49. -56. -61. -63. -65. -68. -72. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 12. 11. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 3. 6. 10. 8. 5. 4. 2. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -1. -5. -9. -14. -20. -29. -38. -44. -51. -57. -64. -70. -76. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 10.8 121.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/15/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.73 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 379.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 41.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.39 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.2% 20.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.7% 7.2% 4.2% 3.1% 1.7% 1.0% 0.8% 0.0% Bayesian: 5.3% 4.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.1% 10.7% 1.4% 1.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/15/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##