* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/14/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 101 104 107 109 110 111 108 101 100 93 85 81 75 71 69 65 V (KT) LAND 95 101 104 107 109 110 111 108 101 100 93 85 81 75 71 69 65 V (KT) LGEM 95 101 104 105 105 105 106 108 104 91 78 67 60 56 55 53 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 6 5 7 6 3 3 3 3 5 4 9 11 13 14 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -2 0 -1 -6 -3 -3 0 7 8 3 -3 -1 3 6 6 SHEAR DIR 345 317 328 352 30 53 37 208 259 265 269 297 297 301 288 284 287 SST (C) 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.3 28.2 27.5 27.3 26.9 26.3 26.0 25.8 26.1 26.0 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 149 149 149 150 148 147 139 137 132 126 124 121 123 124 122 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -52.1 -52.8 -52.2 -52.6 -51.9 -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 70 73 70 67 70 71 69 66 63 61 60 55 48 41 43 41 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 19 20 22 23 24 26 25 29 28 25 25 24 23 24 24 850 MB ENV VOR 20 29 29 27 24 13 5 15 20 27 32 52 64 75 72 70 72 200 MB DIV 56 85 77 65 60 87 80 86 57 85 64 68 11 -18 -10 -5 -4 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -6 -7 -7 -5 -3 -3 -3 0 5 7 4 3 6 4 5 LAND (KM) 1590 1651 1717 1777 1841 1942 2057 2194 2299 2378 2180 1973 1777 1493 1415 1195 974 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.2 11.3 11.8 12.5 13.2 13.8 14.3 15.0 15.7 16.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.3 119.3 120.3 121.4 122.4 124.6 126.9 129.2 131.3 133.1 134.8 136.6 138.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 11 12 12 10 9 9 9 11 8 7 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 17 18 25 34 41 48 23 11 6 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -13. -17. -21. -24. -27. -28. -30. -32. -35. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. -1. 0. 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 12. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 6. 9. 10. 15. 13. 8. 8. 6. 5. 5. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 13. 6. 5. -2. -10. -14. -20. -24. -26. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 11.0 118.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/14/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.23 2.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 7.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.71 6.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.53 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 312.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.56 -4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 4.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.24 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 36.5% 33.4% 27.5% 22.6% 15.3% 17.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 34.5% 38.1% 30.8% 25.5% 18.2% 9.1% 9.5% 1.5% Bayesian: 63.1% 70.6% 54.5% 43.0% 10.5% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 44.7% 47.3% 37.6% 30.3% 14.7% 11.9% 3.2% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/14/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##