* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/14/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 86 91 96 99 105 106 106 105 101 95 92 85 79 75 73 69 V (KT) LAND 80 86 91 96 99 105 106 106 105 101 95 92 85 79 75 73 69 V (KT) LGEM 80 86 91 93 95 99 103 107 107 99 88 77 69 65 62 61 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 5 4 5 8 3 3 2 2 3 6 8 10 8 8 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -3 -3 -2 -3 6 5 3 -5 -4 -1 4 5 SHEAR DIR 9 349 327 349 18 21 24 9 265 267 328 307 298 304 294 316 293 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.1 27.4 27.2 26.4 26.2 25.9 25.6 26.0 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 150 148 149 151 149 149 146 138 136 128 125 121 119 124 122 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.6 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 6 700-500 MB RH 72 72 72 71 69 70 70 68 64 60 57 55 48 47 46 44 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 20 20 23 22 25 28 30 28 29 27 27 26 26 25 850 MB ENV VOR 15 19 25 26 23 11 3 5 11 22 36 50 66 58 70 64 73 200 MB DIV 69 62 83 94 80 69 98 91 80 83 104 44 29 12 13 22 15 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -5 -6 -7 -5 -3 -3 -2 0 3 3 4 8 3 1 LAND (KM) 1539 1597 1660 1721 1786 1902 2005 2130 2258 2354 2262 2044 1827 1666 1508 1250 996 LAT (DEG N) 11.0 11.0 10.9 11.0 11.0 11.4 12.0 12.7 13.3 14.0 14.7 15.4 16.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.4 118.4 119.3 120.3 121.3 123.5 125.7 128.0 130.2 132.2 134.1 136.0 137.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 10 11 12 11 11 10 9 10 8 7 10 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 18 17 19 25 34 49 39 16 10 6 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -4. -6. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -16. -18. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 8. 14. 17. 14. 15. 11. 9. 8. 7. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 19. 25. 26. 26. 25. 21. 15. 12. 5. -1. -5. -7. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 11.0 117.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/14/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.36 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 8.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.72 8.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.57 6.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 248.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.63 -7.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 7.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 6.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.20 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 3.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 34.2% 44.3% 39.1% 30.9% 24.8% 19.1% 16.3% 12.5% Logistic: 25.4% 44.8% 33.6% 27.0% 17.2% 13.5% 12.8% 4.5% Bayesian: 38.4% 66.8% 55.4% 41.5% 17.2% 32.3% 3.9% 0.0% Consensus: 32.7% 52.0% 42.7% 33.1% 19.7% 21.6% 11.0% 5.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/14/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##