* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/14/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 84 92 98 105 113 115 114 110 105 103 95 87 82 76 72 69 V (KT) LAND 75 84 92 98 105 113 115 114 110 105 103 95 87 82 76 72 69 V (KT) LGEM 75 84 91 96 100 107 112 112 109 106 99 88 77 69 65 63 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 5 5 4 4 5 2 2 2 1 4 4 7 7 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -3 -3 -1 1 -3 -2 -1 1 9 7 2 -5 -1 0 3 SHEAR DIR 18 16 353 357 31 358 25 323 341 14 343 332 275 309 296 297 282 SST (C) 29.5 29.1 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.3 27.8 27.6 27.1 26.7 26.4 25.6 25.9 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 160 156 152 149 147 149 150 150 148 143 140 135 130 128 119 122 119 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.3 -53.6 -53.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.3 -52.9 -52.1 -52.5 -51.8 -52.5 -51.9 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 73 71 72 70 71 70 70 70 68 62 61 56 52 47 41 46 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 18 19 21 24 27 28 28 30 29 27 26 24 24 25 850 MB ENV VOR 16 19 20 27 31 17 6 3 10 15 26 31 51 60 62 60 60 200 MB DIV 74 71 56 80 86 61 83 68 116 71 93 39 38 18 -10 -18 -6 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -3 -4 -6 -4 -2 -4 -4 -1 1 5 3 4 5 6 LAND (KM) 1482 1541 1605 1668 1734 1867 1967 2080 2221 2323 2361 2149 1942 1744 1505 1360 1125 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 11.0 10.9 10.9 10.8 11.0 11.5 12.1 12.7 13.5 14.2 15.0 15.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.5 117.5 118.4 119.4 120.3 122.4 124.6 126.8 129.1 131.3 133.3 135.1 136.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 11 11 10 10 9 10 8 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 25 21 18 19 26 44 51 29 13 8 7 5 3 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 57.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 16. 19. 16. 12. 10. 7. 6. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 16. 15. 9. 2. -2. -5. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 17. 23. 30. 38. 40. 39. 35. 30. 28. 20. 12. 7. 1. -3. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 11.1 116.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/14/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.42 9.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 14.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.74 12.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.55 9.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 220.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.66 -10.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 10.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 10.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 60% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 65% is 5.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 60% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 10.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 59.9% 65.2% 60.1% 54.9% 42.6% 35.1% 22.1% 13.5% Logistic: 65.3% 78.1% 70.3% 67.2% 49.4% 47.4% 22.0% 13.5% Bayesian: 75.3% 85.2% 79.2% 75.4% 24.0% 56.1% 8.7% 0.1% Consensus: 66.8% 76.2% 69.9% 65.8% 38.7% 46.2% 17.6% 9.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/14/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##