* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FERNANDA EP062017 07/13/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 74 83 90 98 109 112 111 111 110 108 101 92 86 79 75 70 V (KT) LAND 65 74 83 90 98 109 112 111 111 110 108 101 92 86 79 75 70 V (KT) LGEM 65 74 82 88 93 103 111 118 120 116 110 97 84 75 69 65 62 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 4 3 6 4 6 4 4 5 2 1 7 7 9 6 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -2 -4 -2 -3 -4 -3 -3 5 6 0 -2 -6 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 10 20 19 6 26 56 20 52 42 14 254 338 319 294 311 334 307 SST (C) 30.0 29.4 29.1 28.7 28.5 28.3 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.3 27.7 27.5 26.9 26.5 25.8 25.4 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 165 159 155 152 149 148 151 149 149 148 142 140 132 128 120 116 121 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 71 72 72 71 68 68 68 70 68 64 59 54 46 44 40 41 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 17 18 20 21 22 26 29 32 31 29 28 27 26 25 850 MB ENV VOR 12 16 18 19 25 30 16 14 11 13 23 37 63 72 73 78 76 200 MB DIV 70 80 72 50 75 76 58 88 76 90 63 51 45 28 7 -18 -27 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -2 -4 -6 -5 -5 -6 -4 -1 2 2 3 5 5 LAND (KM) 1409 1465 1525 1597 1673 1809 1933 2052 2175 2284 2392 2230 1967 1845 1661 1560 1340 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.3 11.2 11.1 10.9 10.9 11.2 11.6 12.2 12.9 13.6 14.4 15.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.6 116.6 117.5 118.5 119.5 121.5 123.7 125.9 128.1 130.1 132.3 134.5 136.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 12 9 7 7 7 10 HEAT CONTENT 28 25 21 18 19 36 55 43 17 12 7 7 4 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 61.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 15. 19. 23. 20. 15. 13. 11. 9. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 12. 18. 17. 9. 2. -2. -6. -9. -11. -11. -10. -10. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 18. 25. 33. 44. 47. 46. 46. 45. 43. 36. 27. 21. 14. 10. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 11.4 115.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062017 FERNANDA 07/13/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.53 14.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 17.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.71 14.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.53 10.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 200.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.69 -12.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 15.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 12.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 1.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.58 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 68% is 10.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 78% is 6.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 77% is 8.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 71% is 11.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 57% is 13.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 61% is 9.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 53% is 9.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 67.6% 78.4% 76.7% 71.3% 57.0% 61.2% 53.5% 21.4% Logistic: 71.4% 84.8% 79.4% 77.4% 59.0% 67.1% 38.8% 23.9% Bayesian: 79.3% 84.4% 78.0% 75.6% 44.7% 75.7% 31.5% 0.4% Consensus: 72.8% 82.6% 78.1% 74.8% 53.6% 68.0% 41.3% 15.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062017 FERNANDA 07/13/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##