* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052017 07/12/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 30 25 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 30 25 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 31 27 24 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 14 16 17 16 14 15 17 25 26 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -2 0 0 0 3 4 5 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 243 245 247 251 262 257 252 237 233 238 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.9 22.0 21.3 21.0 21.0 20.9 20.7 20.7 20.4 20.6 20.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 90 81 73 70 70 69 66 66 62 64 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -51.3 -51.1 -51.4 -52.0 -52.6 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.0 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 48 46 43 41 38 32 29 25 25 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 12 11 10 8 7 5 5 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 44 38 29 15 -7 -27 -44 -57 -67 -68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -15 -12 -8 -27 -24 -11 -12 0 -11 3 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 4 1 3 4 4 8 6 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 821 820 827 846 873 939 986 1002 1003 1024 1040 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.2 23.7 24.3 24.8 25.8 26.6 27.2 27.7 27.9 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.8 121.4 121.9 122.5 123.1 124.2 125.3 126.3 127.1 127.7 128.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 7 7 6 5 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -7. -7. -9. -9. -11. -14. -19. -24. -29. -32. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -4. -11. -16. -17. -18. -19. -21. -25. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -17. -17. -20. -22. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -11. -13. -17. -18. -17. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -14. -19. -25. -30. -38. -46. -57. -66. -71. -76. -81. -86. -93. -99. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 22.6 120.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052017 EUGENE 07/12/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.12 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.39 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.08 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 292.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.39 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.39 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052017 EUGENE 07/12/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##