* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052017 07/11/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 50 46 41 38 28 22 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 50 46 41 38 28 22 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 49 44 40 36 29 24 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 8 10 9 8 11 10 10 12 12 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 1 2 2 1 1 -1 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 232 245 262 258 235 222 228 216 216 198 188 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 25.2 24.6 23.9 22.8 21.1 21.7 21.8 21.5 21.4 21.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 114 108 101 89 71 77 78 74 73 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.3 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.2 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 59 55 52 50 48 44 41 35 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 17 18 15 14 12 10 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 37 44 43 49 29 19 3 -14 -22 -46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -14 -23 -6 -15 -20 -16 -11 -3 0 5 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -3 -4 -3 1 -1 1 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 809 805 806 792 776 769 804 863 897 912 891 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.3 21.0 21.7 22.3 22.9 24.1 25.1 26.1 26.8 27.5 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.5 119.0 119.5 120.0 120.5 121.5 122.5 123.5 124.4 125.1 125.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -7. -10. -12. -16. -18. -21. -25. -29. -33. -37. -40. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -16. -18. -20. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -2. -1. -3. -5. -10. -14. -16. -18. -17. -16. -14. -13. -12. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -14. -17. -27. -33. -40. -47. -52. -58. -60. -63. -64. -66. -69. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.3 118.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052017 EUGENE 07/11/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.20 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.42 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.09 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 411.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.57 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052017 EUGENE 07/11/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##