* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052017 07/10/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 80 77 72 68 60 51 42 34 25 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 80 77 72 68 60 51 42 34 25 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 79 73 67 61 51 42 35 30 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 6 5 2 1 7 6 6 7 8 10 15 21 10 17 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 4 6 6 0 0 0 -1 0 -2 -1 0 0 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 183 228 240 264 234 255 262 224 207 193 180 175 200 146 195 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.6 25.9 25.2 24.9 24.1 22.6 21.8 21.8 21.5 21.6 21.2 20.8 21.3 19.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 130 122 115 111 103 87 78 78 75 76 72 67 73 62 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -53.1 -54.0 -54.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 64 62 59 56 55 51 49 44 39 30 24 20 29 25 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 24 22 21 20 17 15 13 11 9 7 6 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 34 35 29 42 61 60 40 25 15 -2 -22 -27 -36 -58 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 9 10 -1 -15 -25 -24 5 -4 -4 -1 8 0 1 7 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -9 -9 -8 -1 -3 3 2 2 3 0 5 -3 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 867 846 819 808 809 809 789 803 855 939 1017 1038 1076 839 789 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.5 19.3 20.1 20.8 22.0 23.1 24.1 25.0 25.8 26.5 27.3 28.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.2 116.9 117.6 118.2 118.9 119.9 120.9 121.9 123.0 124.2 125.6 127.1 128.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 7 6 7 7 8 5 6 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 472 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -3. -5. -10. -18. -25. -33. -39. -44. -50. -56. -60. -66. -70. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -16. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -3. -7. -10. -14. -17. -18. -18. -17. -16. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -13. -17. -25. -34. -43. -51. -60. -69. -75. -82. -86. -92. -96. -98. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 17.7 116.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052017 EUGENE 07/10/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 36.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.08 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.19 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 502.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.35 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 62.3 to 0.0 0.89 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 3.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052017 EUGENE 07/10/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##