* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052017 07/09/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 72 80 85 88 92 85 75 61 50 40 30 23 15 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 72 80 85 88 92 85 75 61 50 40 30 23 15 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 72 78 83 86 85 76 62 51 42 34 28 23 18 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 3 6 7 3 0 4 0 3 4 6 2 3 8 8 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -7 -5 -3 -1 4 5 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 -2 2 SHEAR DIR 206 74 56 153 119 91 148 42 2 352 317 340 360 12 156 191 184 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.5 28.4 27.6 26.6 24.2 23.5 22.9 21.8 21.0 21.0 20.5 20.7 20.9 20.8 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 149 148 140 130 104 96 90 78 70 70 64 68 70 67 69 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -51.7 -51.7 -51.3 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -52.2 -52.8 -53.3 -54.1 -55.0 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 3 3 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 69 68 69 65 64 63 59 57 51 50 46 41 35 33 26 23 21 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 25 25 25 26 23 23 20 18 15 13 11 8 7 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 30 30 27 20 29 37 28 37 37 30 14 1 -10 -15 -22 -42 -35 200 MB DIV 52 78 75 38 16 13 0 -32 -24 -5 0 -12 -9 0 8 10 11 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -1 0 -5 -6 -3 0 -3 0 0 2 3 3 3 0 LAND (KM) 1048 999 958 921 894 858 815 838 825 821 846 901 978 869 1109 1144 1170 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.7 15.4 16.2 16.9 18.5 20.0 21.2 22.3 23.2 24.1 25.0 25.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.3 113.9 114.5 115.1 115.7 117.1 118.3 119.5 120.5 121.4 122.4 123.5 124.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 10 9 8 7 6 7 6 6 8 10 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 18 16 19 16 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 40.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -3. -7. -10. -15. -19. -25. -30. -36. -40. -45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. 0. -4. -7. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 15. 20. 23. 27. 20. 10. -4. -15. -25. -35. -42. -50. -55. -62. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 14.0 113.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052017 EUGENE 07/09/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.46 10.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 13.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.89 15.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.44 7.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 281.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.60 -9.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 13.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 9.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.43 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 66% is 10.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 71% is 5.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 63% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 62% is 9.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 12.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 66.2% 70.6% 63.2% 61.6% 51.0% 26.4% 15.7% 0.0% Logistic: 47.5% 48.2% 39.3% 32.1% 31.9% 10.4% 1.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 24.5% 28.0% 14.8% 7.9% 7.3% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 46.0% 48.9% 39.1% 33.9% 30.1% 12.7% 5.6% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052017 EUGENE 07/09/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##