* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052017 07/08/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 68 76 84 90 95 92 82 71 58 47 38 30 24 18 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 68 76 84 90 95 92 82 71 58 47 38 30 24 18 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 69 77 84 90 92 87 73 59 48 40 33 27 23 20 17 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 5 6 7 8 5 0 2 5 4 5 2 1 6 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -7 -7 -5 -4 -1 2 2 1 0 0 -3 0 -2 -5 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 253 174 123 101 131 133 138 73 226 252 282 273 296 177 184 190 207 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.6 28.3 26.9 25.7 24.1 22.9 22.2 21.3 21.1 20.6 20.4 21.0 21.0 21.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 148 150 147 133 120 103 90 83 73 71 65 65 72 69 74 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -51.9 -51.8 -51.6 -51.9 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -52.5 -52.9 -53.5 -54.0 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 -0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 66 66 65 64 60 57 53 51 47 45 41 38 33 28 25 24 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 22 24 25 26 25 23 22 19 17 15 12 10 8 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 24 30 30 25 30 47 36 38 49 43 32 19 -2 -16 -12 -21 -40 200 MB DIV 49 37 42 46 55 27 13 -18 -27 -22 -8 -18 -3 -4 13 1 4 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -5 -4 -2 -7 -5 -1 -1 -3 0 -2 4 3 5 5 LAND (KM) 1095 1050 1007 970 941 899 857 852 854 835 864 924 997 1004 1196 1260 1325 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 14.2 14.8 15.5 16.2 17.8 19.1 20.4 21.7 22.8 23.8 24.7 25.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.2 113.8 114.3 114.9 115.5 116.7 117.9 119.1 120.2 121.2 122.4 123.6 124.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 9 11 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 21 18 18 23 17 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 51.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. -1. -4. -8. -12. -17. -23. -28. -32. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 13. 7. 2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 16. 24. 30. 35. 32. 22. 11. -2. -13. -22. -30. -36. -42. -49. -56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 13.5 113.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052017 EUGENE 07/08/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.52 13.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 16.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.95 19.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.41 7.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 264.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.61 -11.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 15.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 8.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.17 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.95 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 61% is 9.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 76% is 5.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 75% is 9.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 74% is 12.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 64% is 15.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 44% is 6.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 60.6% 75.7% 74.7% 73.7% 64.0% 44.5% 20.2% 0.0% Logistic: 26.2% 30.4% 22.0% 16.1% 17.0% 6.5% 5.5% 1.3% Bayesian: 13.5% 27.7% 17.2% 8.5% 6.3% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 33.5% 44.6% 38.0% 32.8% 29.1% 17.3% 8.6% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052017 EUGENE 07/08/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##