* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052017 07/08/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 57 63 70 77 84 84 79 69 58 48 39 31 24 18 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 57 63 70 77 84 84 79 69 58 48 39 31 24 18 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 57 63 69 74 80 79 71 60 50 41 33 28 24 20 18 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 3 4 10 12 7 5 4 7 8 10 12 11 10 16 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -7 -5 -6 -8 -7 2 1 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 4 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 245 283 203 145 148 134 171 119 128 214 243 252 261 278 269 218 215 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.5 27.2 26.4 24.2 23.4 22.6 21.4 20.9 20.8 20.5 21.1 21.0 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 149 148 149 136 127 104 95 87 75 69 68 66 73 71 71 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -51.6 -52.1 -51.5 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -52.0 -52.3 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.7 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 68 68 67 66 67 64 63 57 55 49 47 45 43 38 32 27 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 19 21 23 24 24 24 23 20 17 15 13 11 9 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 26 27 33 34 24 31 29 27 46 47 41 26 12 -8 -20 -32 -46 200 MB DIV 76 53 46 58 36 51 21 12 -22 -7 -12 -12 -20 -7 -2 20 28 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 -3 0 -5 -7 -4 0 -1 0 0 0 1 6 8 LAND (KM) 1050 1052 1011 970 936 883 846 831 847 837 825 859 910 946 1136 1155 1240 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.9 14.5 15.2 15.8 17.3 18.7 20.0 21.2 22.4 23.6 24.7 25.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.5 113.1 113.7 114.3 114.8 116.0 117.2 118.5 119.6 120.8 121.8 122.9 123.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 9 12 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 25 19 16 18 20 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 47.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 2. -1. -6. -11. -16. -20. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 3. -1. -3. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 12. 7. 2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 20. 27. 34. 34. 29. 19. 8. -2. -11. -19. -26. -32. -38. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 13.3 112.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052017 EUGENE 07/08/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.60 14.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 13.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.96 17.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.45 7.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 201.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.68 -11.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 11.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 8.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.17 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.19 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 71% is 5.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 64% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 61% is 9.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 11.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 32% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 44% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 40.4% 71.4% 64.1% 60.9% 46.9% 31.9% 43.6% 12.4% Logistic: 30.5% 39.7% 27.5% 18.2% 19.3% 6.8% 9.2% 2.5% Bayesian: 33.4% 46.1% 25.5% 11.3% 8.8% 4.4% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 34.8% 52.4% 39.0% 30.1% 25.0% 14.4% 17.8% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052017 EUGENE 07/08/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##