* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052017 07/08/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 49 54 61 71 77 76 72 66 58 49 41 34 29 22 N/A V (KT) LAND 40 44 49 54 61 71 77 76 72 66 58 49 41 34 29 22 N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 43 46 50 53 62 68 69 63 54 46 38 31 26 23 20 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 0 4 2 1 8 9 1 3 4 6 8 10 7 12 17 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -4 -8 -6 -4 -5 -3 0 -2 -1 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 274 336 277 288 86 163 146 23 326 273 224 268 265 259 245 218 220 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.5 28.4 28.2 26.8 25.5 24.0 22.9 21.9 20.8 20.9 20.8 21.2 20.9 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 151 149 148 146 131 118 102 90 80 68 68 69 74 70 75 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -51.8 -52.0 -51.4 -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -52.0 -52.3 -53.0 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 71 69 69 67 67 65 63 61 55 55 49 49 44 42 33 31 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 19 21 23 25 25 24 23 21 18 16 14 13 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 35 27 26 27 24 17 30 24 23 42 38 35 15 -5 -11 -25 -36 200 MB DIV 105 90 61 46 54 66 42 6 -12 -15 -13 -22 -10 -4 -12 7 14 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -1 0 -2 -3 -1 -4 -6 0 -1 -2 0 0 7 3 14 LAND (KM) 1048 1049 1057 1018 983 917 884 842 837 853 835 835 873 946 1184 1223 1303 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 13.2 13.8 14.4 15.0 16.4 17.9 19.2 20.5 21.8 23.0 24.3 25.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.8 112.4 113.0 113.6 114.2 115.4 116.6 117.8 119.0 120.3 121.4 122.4 123.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 4 9 12 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 33 26 19 17 17 14 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 44.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 14. 13. 10. 6. 1. -3. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. 10. 9. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 9. 8. 5. 1. -2. -4. -4. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 10. 6. 1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 21. 31. 37. 36. 32. 26. 18. 9. 1. -6. -11. -18. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 12.6 111.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052017 EUGENE 07/08/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.69 10.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 6.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.94 11.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.54 6.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 148.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.74 -8.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 4.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.20 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.18 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 42% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.4% 42.4% 37.7% 26.1% 19.5% 18.2% 42.4% 0.0% Logistic: 28.5% 63.0% 52.3% 37.9% 26.5% 29.4% 24.7% 5.1% Bayesian: 19.0% 36.4% 18.7% 6.8% 7.2% 7.0% 1.3% 0.1% Consensus: 20.7% 47.3% 36.2% 23.6% 17.7% 18.2% 22.8% 1.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052017 EUGENE 07/08/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##