* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052017 07/08/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 41 48 55 63 76 82 78 70 64 54 45 38 32 25 18 N/A V (KT) LAND 35 41 48 55 63 76 82 78 70 64 54 45 38 32 25 18 N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 40 44 49 53 62 68 69 64 55 47 39 32 27 24 21 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 1 2 4 3 8 7 5 1 1 8 5 6 7 15 19 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -4 -7 -6 -7 -5 0 1 0 -1 2 -1 0 -1 2 0 SHEAR DIR 295 251 241 248 211 151 140 194 70 330 242 249 252 243 224 216 226 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.2 28.9 28.4 27.9 26.5 25.6 23.9 23.6 22.7 20.9 20.7 20.7 20.9 21.0 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 156 153 148 143 128 119 101 97 88 69 67 69 71 71 71 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -52.6 -52.6 -51.6 -52.2 -51.6 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -52.4 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 72 70 69 68 67 67 66 65 61 59 55 54 51 45 34 29 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 19 20 21 24 26 25 24 23 20 18 16 13 12 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 45 43 33 31 34 25 33 18 11 11 16 16 3 -1 -17 -40 -41 200 MB DIV 105 103 101 82 64 43 64 17 0 -13 -13 -17 -7 3 1 -2 5 700-850 TADV -5 -6 -3 -1 0 -2 0 -4 -4 -4 0 -3 -1 -2 1 0 7 LAND (KM) 1044 1040 1041 1044 997 926 875 828 808 813 785 765 777 920 1081 1140 1237 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.8 13.3 14.0 14.6 15.9 17.4 18.9 20.2 21.5 22.7 23.9 25.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.3 111.9 112.4 113.0 113.6 114.8 116.0 117.2 118.4 119.4 120.4 121.3 122.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 8 12 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 42 37 30 21 16 14 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 66.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 14. 16. 17. 17. 15. 11. 6. 2. -1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 7. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 9. 8. 4. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 13. 20. 18. 10. 3. -2. -7. -10. -12. -12. -11. -11. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 20. 28. 41. 47. 43. 35. 29. 19. 10. 3. -3. -10. -17. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.2 111.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052017 EUGENE 07/08/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.76 16.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 10.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.87 14.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.64 10.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 129.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.76 -11.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 4.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 8.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.26 2.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.36 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 65% is 5.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 56% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 7.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 8.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 61% is 10.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.2% 64.9% 56.2% 44.5% 34.4% 26.9% 61.4% 26.7% Logistic: 59.1% 83.5% 77.0% 70.8% 52.7% 69.2% 50.3% 11.8% Bayesian: 23.0% 70.0% 74.6% 56.9% 7.3% 27.2% 5.4% 0.2% Consensus: 34.1% 72.8% 69.3% 57.4% 31.5% 41.1% 39.0% 12.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052017 EUGENE 07/08/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##