* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FOUR AL042017 07/07/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 28 32 37 41 45 47 50 53 56 60 63 66 67 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 28 32 37 41 45 47 50 53 56 60 63 66 67 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 26 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 10 15 19 17 22 18 20 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 0 2 4 -2 0 -3 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 227 223 244 263 274 278 291 266 259 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.9 28.1 28.0 28.1 27.7 27.7 28.0 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 138 141 139 141 135 135 139 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 136 138 141 138 139 131 129 130 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -54.7 -54.8 -55.0 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 44 43 42 44 46 51 51 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -10 -13 -23 -28 -35 -50 -60 -58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 20 19 15 3 8 16 15 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 11 17 19 13 4 7 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1132 1017 934 893 718 433 365 407 489 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.7 17.3 18.0 18.6 20.2 21.7 23.0 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 52.0 53.8 55.5 57.2 58.9 62.1 65.2 68.2 71.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 17 17 17 17 16 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 39 34 34 20 24 18 35 23 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 20 CX,CY: -18/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 722 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 25. 28. 31. 35. 37. 38. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 8. 12. 16. 20. 22. 25. 28. 31. 35. 38. 41. 42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.0 52.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL042017 FOUR 07/07/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.61 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.76 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 225.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 71.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.31 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 13.5% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.4% 12.9% 9.2% 3.0% 0.9% 3.4% 4.1% 6.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 9.0% 6.2% 1.0% 0.3% 1.2% 1.4% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042017 FOUR 07/07/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL042017 FOUR 07/07/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 28 32 37 41 45 47 50 53 56 60 63 66 67 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 26 30 35 39 43 45 48 51 54 58 61 64 65 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 26 31 35 39 41 44 47 50 54 57 60 61 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 19 24 28 32 34 37 40 43 47 50 53 54 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT