* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP042017 06/27/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 80 78 75 72 64 55 45 35 28 23 21 21 21 21 20 19 V (KT) LAND 80 80 78 75 72 64 55 45 35 28 23 21 21 21 21 20 19 V (KT) LGEM 80 80 77 73 68 58 49 41 34 28 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 7 3 2 0 2 3 3 6 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 2 0 0 1 1 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 54 65 88 181 40 123 169 178 150 138 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 25.7 25.5 25.3 24.7 24.4 23.9 23.5 23.4 23.4 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 120 118 116 109 106 100 96 95 95 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 69 71 69 65 67 61 60 51 45 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 15 15 14 13 11 10 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 29 32 31 27 28 9 -3 -11 7 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 13 -11 -12 16 1 -10 -13 -12 -33 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -3 -3 -3 0 -3 0 1 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 320 376 441 420 415 464 560 613 693 799 923 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.6 18.9 19.2 19.4 19.8 20.1 20.4 20.6 20.7 20.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.8 108.7 109.6 110.5 111.4 113.0 114.5 115.9 117.3 118.7 120.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -15. -20. -26. -30. -34. -37. -40. -43. -46. -49. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -13. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -12. -13. -14. -14. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -5. -8. -16. -25. -35. -45. -52. -57. -59. -59. -59. -59. -60. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 18.2 107.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042017 DORA 06/27/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.09 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.70 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 260.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 5.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042017 DORA 06/27/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##