* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP042017 06/26/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 84 85 85 82 74 65 54 44 34 27 26 26 25 25 24 23 V (KT) LAND 80 84 85 85 82 74 65 54 44 34 27 26 26 25 25 24 23 V (KT) LGEM 80 84 83 80 75 65 56 47 39 33 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 12 11 5 3 3 2 5 4 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -3 -1 0 0 0 0 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 63 53 61 82 136 159 217 168 172 145 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.3 26.0 26.0 25.8 24.7 24.4 23.8 23.6 23.5 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 126 123 123 121 109 106 99 97 96 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.0 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 71 68 71 70 64 63 60 56 48 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 15 16 14 13 12 10 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 23 33 31 30 26 25 10 -8 -9 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 32 18 -13 -24 3 -16 -19 -8 -36 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -4 -3 -4 -3 0 0 3 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 275 327 383 441 446 436 500 591 660 747 865 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.0 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.4 19.8 20.1 20.3 20.5 20.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.8 107.7 108.6 109.5 110.3 111.9 113.5 115.0 116.5 117.9 119.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 472 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -12. -17. -23. -27. -31. -34. -36. -39. -42. -45. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 5. 2. -6. -15. -26. -36. -46. -53. -54. -54. -55. -55. -56. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 17.6 106.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042017 DORA 06/26/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 45.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.15 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.67 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 220.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.8% 4.2% 2.1% 0.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 9.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042017 DORA 06/26/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##