* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP042017 06/26/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 73 80 82 84 83 74 66 54 45 37 30 27 24 23 22 21 V (KT) LAND 65 73 80 82 84 83 74 66 54 45 37 30 27 24 23 22 21 V (KT) LGEM 65 73 78 80 79 72 63 55 47 39 32 27 23 21 19 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 3 5 8 8 1 4 5 7 9 11 9 7 7 7 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 0 0 -1 1 3 1 0 3 1 2 0 -3 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 89 156 55 45 51 158 154 174 164 154 158 149 165 130 143 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.5 27.0 26.3 25.9 25.6 24.8 24.5 24.1 24.1 24.1 24.6 24.6 24.8 25.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 139 134 127 122 119 110 107 103 103 103 108 106 110 117 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 74 72 71 69 68 61 60 57 53 46 40 34 33 29 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 15 14 14 14 12 12 10 9 7 6 6 4 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 11 16 28 33 24 14 17 1 -11 -10 0 22 53 84 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 38 23 32 25 -34 -6 -7 -14 2 -30 -17 -33 -20 -15 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 1 0 -4 -4 -4 -6 0 0 3 4 7 6 5 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 252 270 283 336 394 439 477 568 671 764 899 1064 1241 1246 1614 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.4 19.0 19.3 19.5 19.7 19.8 19.6 19.1 18.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.8 105.8 106.8 107.8 108.8 110.7 112.5 114.1 115.8 117.4 119.0 120.6 122.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 4 9 19 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 473 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -18. -20. -22. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 15. 17. 19. 18. 9. 1. -11. -20. -28. -35. -38. -41. -42. -43. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 16.5 104.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042017 DORA 06/26/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.35 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 9.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.71 8.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 168.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.72 -7.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 8.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 6.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 55% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 3.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 55.4% 45.9% 35.8% 26.9% 16.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 59.4% 42.9% 31.3% 17.6% 11.3% 2.7% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 9.8% 4.6% 0.9% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 41.6% 31.1% 22.7% 15.0% 9.2% 0.9% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042017 DORA 06/26/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##