* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DORA EP042017 06/25/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 52 58 64 69 77 81 78 72 66 59 52 47 44 45 46 47 V (KT) LAND 45 52 58 64 69 77 81 78 72 66 59 52 47 44 45 46 47 V (KT) LGEM 45 52 58 64 69 74 74 69 62 54 46 40 34 29 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 6 4 3 1 7 4 3 2 2 6 6 3 3 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 -1 -3 0 0 1 -1 4 5 4 3 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 28 40 49 59 119 99 111 319 345 175 186 177 197 110 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.6 29.1 28.6 28.2 27.3 26.1 25.9 25.0 24.7 24.7 24.4 24.0 24.3 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 156 151 147 137 124 122 112 109 109 106 101 104 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -51.6 -52.5 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 6 5 6 4 4 2 2 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 77 76 76 75 74 72 72 66 67 61 60 54 48 41 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 15 15 16 17 17 19 17 17 15 13 11 10 9 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 5 14 11 12 22 33 17 29 6 -5 -6 14 26 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 46 66 72 48 26 3 11 -10 -8 -18 -24 -9 -7 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 2 1 0 -1 -8 -4 -2 0 1 3 5 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 266 259 248 236 246 276 370 434 426 492 606 701 815 929 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.3 15.8 16.3 16.8 17.7 18.5 19.0 19.5 19.9 20.0 19.9 19.8 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 101.3 102.2 103.2 104.1 105.1 106.9 108.6 110.2 111.9 113.5 115.1 116.6 118.1 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 19 14 11 10 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 488 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 8. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 9. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 19. 24. 32. 36. 33. 27. 21. 14. 7. 2. -1. 0. 1. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.8 101.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP042017 DORA 06/25/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.69 9.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 8.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 30.9 to 7.7 0.72 7.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.47 4.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 64.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.84 -8.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 5.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.12 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.67 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.9% 41.9% 34.0% 24.5% 12.6% 16.6% 25.9% 12.8% Logistic: 23.5% 57.7% 43.4% 27.4% 11.7% 20.8% 7.1% 2.7% Bayesian: 11.1% 39.6% 27.5% 13.3% 7.4% 9.2% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 16.9% 46.4% 35.0% 21.7% 10.6% 15.5% 11.2% 5.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042017 DORA 06/25/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##