* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CINDY AL032017 06/21/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 44 44 44 40 42 40 32 33 32 31 29 29 28 27 27 V (KT) LAND 45 45 44 37 33 29 27 27 27 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 45 43 42 35 32 28 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 19 17 13 12 10 25 31 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 0 -3 10 0 13 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 223 201 213 210 203 232 219 223 233 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.9 29.1 28.7 28.1 27.1 27.8 27.8 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 149 153 147 138 127 137 138 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 127 129 131 125 119 110 121 122 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 6 5 10 9 9 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 53 50 54 53 51 60 52 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 21 20 17 12 14 13 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 61 32 5 18 -40 -28 -20 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 65 51 26 22 49 71 85 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 5 10 6 -5 19 24 28 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 202 132 49 -49 -148 -355 -455 -490 -289 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.8 28.6 29.3 30.2 31.1 33.1 34.8 36.1 37.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 92.9 93.3 93.6 93.6 93.5 92.2 88.7 84.0 79.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 10 14 18 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 14 19 3 3 1 2 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 675 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -17. -19. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -5. -11. -12. -15. -20. -21. -23. -24. -24. -24. -23. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -1. -5. -3. -5. -13. -12. -13. -14. -16. -16. -17. -18. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 27.8 92.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032017 CINDY 06/21/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.57 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.47 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.33 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 211.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.69 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 14.1% 9.3% 6.8% 6.3% 9.4% 9.7% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 5.4% 3.4% 2.4% 2.1% 3.3% 3.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032017 CINDY 06/21/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032017 CINDY 06/21/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 44 37 33 29 27 27 27 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 28 18HR AGO 45 44 43 36 32 28 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 12HR AGO 45 42 41 34 30 26 24 24 24 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 31 27 25 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT