* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * CINDY AL032017 06/21/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 52 53 51 46 38 37 35 34 33 31 30 30 31 31 31 V (KT) LAND 50 51 52 53 51 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 53 52 51 36 30 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 27 22 21 23 19 15 9 25 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -1 0 -2 8 0 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 240 230 206 193 208 192 213 221 221 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.2 28.2 27.6 27.8 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 146 149 154 139 132 134 136 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 125 125 126 128 132 118 112 114 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -51.6 -51.2 -51.3 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 9 5 10 9 9 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 54 56 53 49 51 50 57 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 24 23 21 18 12 13 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 64 69 76 58 23 34 -15 -41 -73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 66 37 40 58 27 19 44 72 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 0 1 3 8 -4 14 8 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 258 227 184 121 51 -131 -302 -434 -577 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.9 27.4 27.9 28.6 29.3 30.9 32.5 34.2 35.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 91.5 92.1 92.6 93.1 93.5 93.9 93.0 91.2 89.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 8 8 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 15 14 14 19 3 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. -1. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -15. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -17. -19. -18. -20. -21. -22. -22. -22. -22. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 1. -4. -12. -13. -15. -16. -17. -19. -20. -20. -19. -19. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 26.9 91.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032017 CINDY 06/21/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.40 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.97 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.44 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 251.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.92 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.1% 21.8% 13.5% 9.8% 9.1% 12.0% 12.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 4.5% 3.3% 2.7% 0.4% 2.0% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.1% 8.9% 5.8% 4.2% 3.2% 4.7% 4.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032017 CINDY 06/21/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032017 CINDY 06/21/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 51 52 53 51 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 50 49 50 51 49 34 28 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 50 47 46 47 45 30 24 22 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 38 23 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT