* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE AL032017 06/20/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 41 42 41 38 36 38 31 30 29 28 27 27 28 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 41 42 35 29 28 27 27 28 28 28 28 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 36 35 34 28 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 23 23 27 27 22 22 13 9 3 22 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 0 -1 1 0 0 3 14 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 234 226 221 231 228 202 215 221 213 223 233 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.4 27.8 27.0 27.7 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 146 149 148 147 149 142 134 125 134 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 126 127 129 128 126 127 120 115 108 115 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.7 -51.4 -51.8 -51.9 -51.4 -51.8 -51.1 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.2 -0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 7 5 10 5 14 9 10 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 64 59 51 50 51 54 53 58 60 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 26 26 25 24 23 21 16 13 13 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 98 82 62 56 49 -16 -12 -15 -28 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 73 125 132 34 9 65 8 20 75 94 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 7 0 0 0 2 0 20 51 21 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 402 344 295 268 230 118 -50 -247 -429 -589 -802 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.5 26.1 26.6 27.1 27.5 28.7 30.2 32.0 33.9 35.9 37.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.6 91.1 91.7 92.2 92.7 93.4 93.6 93.5 92.1 89.5 86.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 6 6 7 8 10 13 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 20 19 17 17 14 3 2 1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. 23. 23. 22. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -0. 0. -2. -10. -12. -14. -17. -19. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -11. -16. -17. -19. -20. -20. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 3. 1. 3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 25.5 90.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL032017 THREE 06/20/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.32 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.11 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.57 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.48 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.23 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 158.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.79 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 12.1% 8.1% 5.9% 5.3% 7.9% 7.7% 11.5% Logistic: 0.6% 1.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% 0.5% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.4% 2.9% 2.1% 1.8% 2.9% 2.7% 3.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL032017 THREE 06/20/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL032017 THREE 06/20/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 41 41 42 35 29 28 27 27 28 28 28 28 28 28 18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 38 39 32 26 25 24 24 25 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 33 34 27 21 20 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 25 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT