* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BRET AL022017 06/20/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 40 39 37 32 30 28 27 27 28 30 33 36 39 41 43 V (KT) LAND 40 41 40 39 37 32 30 28 27 27 28 30 33 36 39 41 43 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 40 38 33 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 22 27 30 28 30 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 12 8 7 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 207 189 187 194 193 201 215 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.8 27.9 28.3 27.9 28.3 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 124 138 144 138 144 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 126 124 138 144 138 144 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -53.7 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 9 8 8 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 69 71 73 73 68 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 10 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 6 12 11 26 32 49 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 86 74 73 62 25 33 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 5 11 11 1 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 67 162 197 129 126 292 390 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.8 12.3 12.8 13.2 13.8 14.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 63.6 65.3 66.9 68.8 70.6 74.6 78.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 18 19 19 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 3 20 39 19 42 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 19 CX,CY: -16/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 19. 22. 24. 26. 28. 28. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -17. -20. -20. -19. -19. -19. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -1. -3. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -12. -10. -7. -4. -1. 1. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 11.3 63.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022017 BRET 06/20/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 42.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.08 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.59 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.43 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 127.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.79 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 11.2% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 2.5% 1.1% 1.3% 0.7% 1.9% 1.6% 2.2% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.8% 6.1% Consensus: 2.2% 4.9% 3.1% 0.5% 0.2% 1.0% 0.8% 2.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022017 BRET 06/20/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022017 BRET 06/20/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 40 39 37 32 30 28 27 27 28 30 33 36 39 41 43 18HR AGO 40 39 38 37 35 30 28 26 25 25 26 28 31 34 37 39 41 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 33 28 26 24 23 23 24 26 29 32 35 37 39 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 28 23 21 19 18 18 19 21 24 27 30 32 34 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT