* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BRET AL022017 06/19/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 38 39 36 34 37 38 40 42 43 46 49 52 55 55 V (KT) LAND 35 36 32 31 34 31 30 32 34 35 37 38 41 45 48 50 51 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 32 30 33 32 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 8 12 6 10 24 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 8 12 7 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 190 200 212 200 168 202 217 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.9 26.4 26.2 27.4 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 139 138 121 119 132 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 144 139 138 121 119 132 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.6 -54.2 -54.2 -53.6 -54.1 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 9 10 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 67 71 73 74 75 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 13 13 12 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 14 18 19 27 25 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 88 118 122 96 98 63 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 4 3 0 -2 10 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 126 76 -12 -50 65 24 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.4 9.7 10.3 10.8 11.8 12.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 58.7 60.3 61.8 63.5 65.3 69.0 72.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 16 16 18 18 19 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 14 18 1 0 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 24 CX,CY: -23/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 796 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 25. 27. 29. 29. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 4. 1. -1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 11. 14. 17. 20. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 9.0 58.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022017 BRET 06/19/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.55 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.62 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.62 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 99.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.82 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 17.7% 11.6% 7.9% 7.7% 10.1% 9.6% 14.4% Logistic: 6.7% 21.0% 8.5% 3.8% 2.7% 4.4% 3.2% 3.5% Bayesian: 2.4% 10.8% 3.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.6% 0.6% 7.7% Consensus: 5.1% 16.5% 7.7% 4.0% 3.5% 5.0% 4.4% 8.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022017 BRET 06/19/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022017 BRET 06/19/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 32 31 34 31 30 32 34 35 37 38 41 45 48 50 51 18HR AGO 35 34 30 29 32 29 28 30 32 33 35 36 39 43 46 48 49 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 33 30 29 31 33 34 36 37 40 44 47 49 50 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 25 24 26 28 29 31 32 35 39 42 44 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT