* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO EP022017 06/01/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 30 30 30 34 37 40 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 61 V (KT) LAND 30 31 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 27 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 9 11 13 16 21 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 0 2 1 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 198 187 188 223 240 241 234 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.4 28.8 28.0 27.5 28.1 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 151 142 137 143 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -51.8 -51.5 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 9 7 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 77 75 75 73 66 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 7 6 5 10 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 60 63 65 69 63 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 131 98 97 83 94 29 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -4 1 7 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 106 46 -15 -74 -121 -110 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.4 15.9 16.4 16.9 17.8 18.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 97.2 96.9 96.6 96.4 96.1 95.7 95.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 17 13 7 4 9 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 25. 28. 30. 31. 33. 34. 36. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -0. -0. 4. 7. 10. 14. 16. 18. 20. 22. 24. 26. 28. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.9 97.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022017 TWO 06/01/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.77 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.47 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.69 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 35.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.87 -5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.09 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.46 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.4% 22.4% 16.7% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 12.7% 13.1% Logistic: 4.4% 18.7% 10.0% 4.6% 2.3% 5.4% 5.2% 5.8% Bayesian: 1.3% 4.2% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% Consensus: 5.3% 15.1% 9.7% 5.8% 0.8% 1.9% 6.0% 6.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022017 TWO 06/01/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##