* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO EP022017 05/31/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 41 44 46 49 52 54 55 58 61 64 66 69 73 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 41 44 46 49 52 54 55 58 61 64 66 69 73 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 35 36 38 39 41 45 51 56 61 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 7 5 4 3 4 4 5 8 11 10 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -6 -4 -2 -4 -4 -4 -7 -5 -4 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 208 174 157 181 176 147 176 143 146 149 180 167 170 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 159 159 159 158 157 157 156 157 158 159 159 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -52.8 -52.9 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 79 78 78 76 75 72 69 68 60 59 53 57 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 10 10 9 5 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 52 56 54 51 50 46 46 35 57 26 46 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 123 114 124 93 86 85 49 45 21 22 15 44 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -2 -3 -1 0 1 0 0 0 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 235 212 188 168 148 108 80 58 49 55 62 71 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 97.7 97.6 97.5 97.3 97.1 96.7 96.4 96.4 96.5 96.8 97.2 97.7 98.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 0 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 24 23 22 21 19 19 19 18 19 19 21 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 24. 28. 30. 33. 36. 39. 41. 43. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -7. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. -11. -10. -9. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 16. 19. 22. 24. 25. 28. 31. 34. 36. 39. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.8 97.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP022017 TWO 05/31/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.85 15.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 7.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.84 11.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.73 9.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 18.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.89 -11.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 7.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.20 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.32 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 63% is 5.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 65% is 11.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 59% is 12.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.0% 63.2% 45.7% 29.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65.3% 58.6% Logistic: 20.9% 75.0% 63.8% 49.0% 44.4% 72.5% 78.4% 57.8% Bayesian: 9.7% 56.4% 59.8% 37.6% 10.1% 44.8% 40.0% 8.0% Consensus: 15.2% 64.9% 56.4% 38.5% 18.2% 39.1% 61.2% 41.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022017 TWO 05/31/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##