* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ADRIAN EP012017 05/10/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 33 34 39 44 49 56 58 61 61 64 64 66 68 70 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 33 34 39 44 49 56 58 61 61 64 64 66 68 70 V (KT) LGEM 35 33 32 32 32 33 36 40 42 45 48 52 56 60 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 9 12 13 9 6 7 10 10 8 11 12 13 9 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -4 -6 -4 0 0 -2 -4 -5 -5 -6 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 93 108 102 102 122 158 169 192 202 185 195 180 175 146 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.8 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.1 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 163 164 165 165 164 163 162 162 162 161 167 169 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 9 10 9 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 76 75 74 73 75 75 80 80 77 74 70 65 59 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 11 11 9 9 7 7 7 8 7 9 8 9 8 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 57 57 56 56 41 35 42 34 45 36 49 45 39 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 125 118 102 108 119 138 136 137 99 89 78 79 72 64 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 0 1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 425 411 397 389 390 423 378 357 338 316 316 305 305 507 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.7 11.0 11.3 11.6 12.0 12.3 12.5 12.7 12.9 12.9 13.0 13.0 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 92.6 93.0 93.4 93.8 94.3 95.3 96.0 96.5 96.7 96.7 96.7 96.7 96.7 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 9 18 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 24 26 27 29 32 35 36 35 33 33 32 32 41 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 34. 38. 41. 43. 46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -7. -8. -6. -7. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -1. 4. 9. 14. 21. 23. 26. 26. 29. 29. 31. 33. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 10.4 92.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012017 ADRIAN 05/10/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.6 27.0 to 147.4 0.84 7.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.56 4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 114.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.77 5.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 27.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.88 -5.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.23 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.91 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 59% is 10.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 28.7% 20.4% 14.9% 10.5% 15.7% 59.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 2.9% 1.4% 0.4% 0.2% 3.6% 11.6% 21.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.1% Consensus: 3.3% 10.7% 7.4% 5.1% 3.6% 6.4% 23.6% 8.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012017 ADRIAN 05/10/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##