* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTTO EP222016 11/26/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 48 47 46 46 48 49 48 48 48 49 50 52 54 54 55 V (KT) LAND 50 48 48 47 46 46 48 49 48 48 48 49 50 52 54 54 55 V (KT) LGEM 50 50 49 48 48 46 46 44 41 37 33 30 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 16 19 21 20 19 16 6 21 14 6 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 3 0 -1 0 1 6 16 5 5 5 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 104 91 86 95 101 100 122 284 303 309 249 298 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 28.3 27.9 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.3 28.6 28.8 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 149 145 146 143 141 143 143 143 145 148 150 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.0 -54.1 -53.5 -54.1 -54.9 -55.1 -55.3 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.3 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 52 50 51 53 50 49 44 42 44 46 49 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 -12 -25 -31 -30 -18 -19 -19 -17 -28 -43 -39 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 11 29 27 0 -23 20 -3 -26 -28 -23 2 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 5 5 6 7 6 6 3 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 500 572 653 748 781 859 934 969 953 926 878 833 769 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.2 9.0 8.9 8.8 8.7 9.0 9.6 10.3 11.0 11.8 12.5 13.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 91.7 93.2 94.6 96.1 97.6 100.6 103.1 105.2 106.7 107.5 108.0 108.3 108.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 14 15 15 14 12 10 6 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 5 3 6 6 4 8 13 10 14 22 30 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 4. 3. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 4. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 9.4 91.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP222016 OTTO 11/26/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.57 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.09 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.25 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 259.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.62 -3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.37 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.80 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 12.4% 11.4% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 4.2% 3.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222016 OTTO 11/26/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##