* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTTO EP222016 11/26/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 45 44 44 44 46 47 48 48 49 48 49 50 52 53 55 V (KT) LAND 50 47 45 44 44 44 46 47 48 48 49 48 49 50 52 53 55 V (KT) LGEM 50 48 46 44 43 42 42 41 40 37 35 32 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 17 19 22 24 24 18 9 11 13 8 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 2 0 -3 -2 0 10 9 4 5 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 122 107 90 87 91 98 103 127 299 309 293 263 272 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 27.7 28.1 28.1 27.9 27.1 27.5 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 143 147 147 145 137 140 146 143 143 145 148 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -53.6 -54.5 -54.7 -55.0 -55.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 56 53 52 53 53 52 48 44 45 47 53 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 8 -6 -21 -25 -28 -14 -19 -8 -23 -34 -32 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 11 24 44 39 -12 0 -18 -31 -20 -13 -8 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 383 472 551 622 710 770 847 923 946 918 893 847 813 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.8 9.6 9.3 9.2 9.1 9.1 9.2 9.5 10.0 10.7 11.4 12.2 12.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 89.9 91.4 92.9 94.3 95.8 98.8 101.6 104.0 105.8 106.8 107.6 108.1 108.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 14 15 14 13 11 8 6 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 3 4 3 4 3 4 11 12 10 13 22 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -8. -6. -5. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 6. 4. 2. -0. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 9.8 89.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP222016 OTTO 11/26/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.55 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.04 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.31 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 236.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.65 -3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.45 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.78 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.1% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 4.5% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP222016 OTTO 11/26/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##