* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTTO AL162016 11/24/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 98 97 94 89 80 81 83 80 77 77 79 83 87 91 94 94 V (KT) LAND 95 69 62 58 54 45 46 48 45 42 42 43 47 52 56 58 59 V (KT) LGEM 95 69 53 62 64 68 73 78 76 74 73 72 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 13 16 14 15 23 16 17 16 7 4 7 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 2 5 2 0 0 0 4 8 11 10 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 111 123 128 128 120 113 104 112 96 137 201 167 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.7 27.0 26.5 26.1 27.7 28.2 27.7 26.9 27.5 28.5 28.9 29.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 133 125 120 116 134 141 134 124 130 143 149 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 133 133 125 119 115 134 141 134 124 128 140 145 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.5 -53.7 -53.5 -53.7 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.6 -0.3 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 70 68 66 65 64 59 58 61 62 59 56 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 10 11 10 9 8 12 14 13 12 12 12 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 54 44 48 49 25 -2 -12 -15 -17 -8 2 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 114 89 47 16 20 35 59 80 25 6 -32 -3 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 5 9 10 9 6 4 9 7 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -3 -89 16 149 276 433 572 715 749 767 773 746 707 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.0 10.8 10.6 10.4 10.2 9.8 9.5 9.3 9.4 9.9 10.5 11.2 12.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.8 84.9 86.0 87.3 88.5 91.1 93.9 96.9 99.4 101.4 102.9 103.9 105.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 12 12 12 13 14 13 11 9 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 6 2 0 0 3 5 5 1 4 11 16 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -7. -12. -17. -21. -23. -24. -24. -27. -29. -30. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -6. -8. -12. -11. -8. -6. -3. 2. 5. 9. 12. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -4. -1. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 2. -1. -6. -15. -14. -12. -15. -18. -18. -16. -12. -8. -4. -1. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 11.0 83.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162016 OTTO 11/24/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 7.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.53 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.92 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.03 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.40 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 201.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.72 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.5% 19.9% 17.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 12.9% 24.3% 15.2% 9.9% 8.3% 7.4% 3.9% 2.2% Bayesian: 21.7% 31.9% 14.1% 4.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 18.7% 25.4% 15.5% 4.7% 3.0% 2.6% 1.3% 0.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162016 OTTO 11/24/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162016 OTTO 11/24/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 69 62 58 54 45 46 48 45 42 42 43 47 52 56 58 59 18HR AGO 95 94 87 83 79 70 71 73 70 67 67 68 72 77 81 83 84 12HR AGO 95 92 91 87 83 74 75 77 74 71 71 72 76 81 85 87 88 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 81 72 73 75 72 69 69 70 74 79 83 85 86 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 67 68 70 67 64 64 65 69 74 78 80 81 IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT