* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTTO AL162016 11/24/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 99 98 94 89 79 75 78 79 75 71 72 74 79 83 85 86 V (KT) LAND 95 85 63 57 51 42 38 41 42 38 34 34 37 42 45 48 49 V (KT) LGEM 95 99 65 51 58 61 66 72 72 69 67 65 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 10 16 16 17 23 18 15 14 9 6 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 2 2 -3 1 0 5 9 13 12 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 145 132 137 133 120 117 112 114 122 136 195 190 188 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 27.9 27.7 27.0 26.6 26.6 27.9 28.0 27.3 27.0 27.8 28.7 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 135 133 125 120 121 137 138 129 125 134 146 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 140 134 132 124 120 121 137 138 129 124 132 143 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.1 -53.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.4 -54.0 -54.0 -54.5 -53.8 -54.3 -54.2 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.3 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 69 71 70 67 67 62 60 61 61 62 59 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 14 11 10 8 8 10 13 14 13 12 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 61 60 50 52 41 16 -9 -17 -18 -17 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 76 122 96 50 21 13 23 66 80 38 -31 -26 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 6 10 10 7 5 8 9 6 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 79 -17 -79 4 121 360 490 614 701 719 744 731 721 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.0 10.9 10.7 10.5 10.3 9.9 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.8 10.3 11.0 11.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 82.9 83.8 84.8 85.9 87.0 89.4 92.0 94.8 97.4 99.9 101.8 103.1 104.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 11 11 12 13 13 12 11 9 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 29 12 7 2 1 0 4 4 3 2 6 13 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. -3. -7. -12. -16. -21. -23. -24. -25. -28. -29. -31. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -12. -9. -6. -3. 1. 5. 8. 12. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -5. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 3. -1. -6. -16. -20. -17. -16. -20. -24. -23. -21. -16. -12. -10. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 11.0 82.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162016 OTTO 11/24/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 8.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.57 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.07 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.47 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 211.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.3% 24.4% 20.0% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 21.4% 31.9% 18.9% 14.3% 12.8% 10.4% 6.3% 2.6% Bayesian: 50.8% 54.8% 34.5% 12.8% 3.5% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 31.5% 37.0% 24.5% 12.6% 5.4% 3.8% 2.1% 0.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162016 OTTO 11/24/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162016 OTTO 11/24/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 0( 17) 0( 17) 0( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 85 63 57 51 42 38 41 42 38 34 34 37 42 45 48 49 18HR AGO 95 94 72 66 60 51 47 50 51 47 43 43 46 51 54 57 58 12HR AGO 95 92 91 85 79 70 66 69 70 66 62 62 65 70 73 76 77 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 79 70 66 69 70 66 62 62 65 70 73 76 77 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 67 63 66 67 63 59 59 62 67 70 73 74 IN 6HR 95 85 76 70 67 61 57 60 61 57 53 53 56 61 64 67 68 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT