* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTTO AL162016 11/24/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 83 84 82 74 69 66 67 64 62 61 65 71 75 78 77 V (KT) LAND 75 80 83 69 52 45 40 37 38 35 34 32 36 42 47 49 48 V (KT) LGEM 75 80 83 72 53 51 54 56 57 55 52 48 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 9 8 13 17 21 24 22 26 25 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -1 0 -3 -1 1 -3 1 0 4 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 124 137 114 108 114 135 122 112 104 109 100 95 118 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.1 27.9 27.9 27.1 27.0 28.0 28.5 27.8 26.7 27.6 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 144 137 135 135 126 125 137 145 135 122 133 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 145 140 134 133 134 124 124 137 145 135 122 133 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -53.0 -53.1 -53.7 -53.5 -54.0 -54.0 -54.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 6 5 6 4 5 5 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 67 70 71 72 68 68 63 62 59 62 61 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 15 14 12 9 9 10 11 11 11 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 59 58 60 57 62 51 26 2 -16 -16 -8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 49 62 80 103 86 20 20 5 64 85 43 -14 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 1 1 1 5 11 6 4 5 7 5 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 189 128 64 -24 -88 135 325 461 572 689 706 737 797 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.2 11.2 11.1 11.0 10.6 10.2 9.7 9.5 9.5 9.7 10.2 10.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 81.8 82.5 83.2 84.1 85.0 87.1 89.3 91.5 93.9 96.4 98.9 101.4 103.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 9 10 11 11 11 12 12 12 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 35 23 12 7 2 1 5 7 4 1 5 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. -6. -3. 0. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -10. -12. -12. -14. -15. -19. -21. -21. -21. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 9. 7. -1. -6. -9. -8. -11. -13. -14. -10. -4. 0. 3. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 11.2 81.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162016 OTTO 11/24/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 13.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.71 6.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.14 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.98 7.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 4.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.31 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.49 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 163.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 2.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 34% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 4.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 10.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 33.9% 53.0% 41.7% 32.3% 24.7% 18.8% 11.8% 0.0% Logistic: 38.8% 66.1% 53.0% 37.0% 31.3% 25.2% 14.4% 7.1% Bayesian: 30.8% 72.5% 56.7% 28.2% 8.7% 12.5% 3.7% 0.9% Consensus: 34.5% 63.9% 50.5% 32.5% 21.6% 18.8% 9.9% 2.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162016 OTTO 11/24/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162016 OTTO 11/24/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 9( 14) 0( 14) 0( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 80 83 69 52 45 40 37 38 35 34 32 36 42 47 49 48 18HR AGO 75 74 77 63 46 39 34 31 32 29 28 26 30 36 41 43 42 12HR AGO 75 72 71 57 40 33 28 25 26 23 22 20 24 30 35 37 36 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 48 41 36 33 34 31 30 28 32 38 43 45 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 75 80 83 74 68 64 59 56 57 54 53 51 55 61 66 68 67