* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTTO AL162016 11/23/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 70 73 75 79 76 69 64 61 61 61 61 65 67 68 68 V (KT) LAND 65 67 70 73 75 79 52 44 39 36 36 37 36 40 43 44 43 V (KT) LGEM 65 67 68 69 71 74 51 45 45 45 45 44 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 13 12 12 13 11 17 22 25 24 21 20 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -4 -4 -2 -2 -1 0 0 4 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 136 150 146 119 114 118 129 134 124 127 112 105 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.6 28.0 27.5 27.2 28.1 28.7 28.4 27.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 146 148 148 144 136 130 126 138 147 143 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 139 141 141 144 144 142 135 129 125 137 147 143 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -52.7 -52.8 -53.3 -53.0 -53.6 -53.3 -54.1 -53.8 -54.5 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 3 5 5 4 5 4 5 4 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 65 68 68 69 73 74 73 71 66 67 61 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 18 17 20 15 11 8 10 11 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 62 64 66 62 60 53 46 53 32 6 -10 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 68 84 103 98 60 64 58 48 62 67 82 77 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 1 1 6 10 9 11 9 6 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 112 136 172 205 182 76 -101 113 299 389 492 595 692 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.6 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.1 10.9 10.6 10.3 10.1 9.8 9.7 9.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.6 80.1 80.5 81.1 81.6 83.0 84.8 86.9 88.9 90.8 92.7 94.8 96.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 6 8 9 10 9 9 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 44 40 38 37 38 32 8 4 1 4 8 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -4. -2. 0. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. 1. -5. -11. -16. -15. -15. -15. -17. -17. -17. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 14. 11. 4. -1. -4. -4. -4. -4. -0. 2. 3. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 10.6 79.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162016 OTTO 11/23/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 10.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.70 5.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 4.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.44 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.52 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 161.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 2.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 4.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.2% 47.7% 35.0% 24.5% 21.1% 27.1% 16.4% 16.0% Logistic: 8.2% 49.9% 30.0% 16.0% 17.3% 17.7% 14.1% 13.2% Bayesian: 1.2% 36.3% 7.6% 1.0% 0.7% 3.0% 11.1% 6.4% Consensus: 9.9% 44.6% 24.2% 13.8% 13.0% 15.9% 13.9% 11.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162016 OTTO 11/23/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162016 OTTO 11/23/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 4( 6) 5( 11) 7( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 1( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 67 70 73 75 79 52 44 39 36 36 37 36 40 43 44 43 18HR AGO 65 64 67 70 72 76 49 41 36 33 33 34 33 37 40 41 40 12HR AGO 65 62 61 64 66 70 43 35 30 27 27 28 27 31 34 35 34 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 57 61 34 26 21 18 18 19 18 22 25 26 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT