* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTTO AL162016 11/22/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 72 76 77 81 83 76 69 65 62 60 61 65 68 69 68 V (KT) LAND 65 69 72 76 77 81 70 44 41 37 34 32 33 37 40 41 40 V (KT) LGEM 65 69 72 73 75 78 69 43 45 46 45 42 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 17 17 14 15 13 13 22 24 28 20 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -4 -4 -5 0 -2 -2 -2 1 6 12 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 138 139 143 141 130 126 111 131 129 125 120 112 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.2 27.5 27.1 27.5 28.2 28.8 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 146 148 148 148 139 130 125 130 139 148 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 138 139 140 143 144 145 136 129 123 129 139 148 138 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.8 -53.8 -54.2 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 61 64 66 68 71 73 73 71 71 70 66 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 18 19 18 19 19 13 10 11 11 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 57 58 59 65 62 61 48 57 46 29 4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 78 75 63 66 69 56 75 68 84 91 92 96 111 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 10 10 11 9 9 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 90 99 120 161 187 122 -12 -28 176 340 441 545 664 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.8 10.7 10.6 10.4 10.1 9.9 9.6 9.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.4 79.8 80.1 80.6 81.1 82.3 83.7 85.6 87.5 89.5 91.5 93.5 95.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 4 5 5 6 8 10 9 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 49 44 43 40 40 43 16 4 1 2 5 8 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -0. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -0. 1. 0. -7. -13. -13. -13. -15. -17. -17. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 12. 16. 18. 11. 4. -0. -3. -5. -4. -0. 3. 4. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 10.4 79.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162016 OTTO 11/22/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 12.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.68 6.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.27 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 6.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 5.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.43 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.46 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.59 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 179.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.74 2.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.98 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 4.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 10.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 31% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 26.1% 52.5% 40.0% 31.5% 25.6% 30.9% 20.7% 17.1% Logistic: 18.9% 54.1% 35.3% 17.8% 18.6% 22.9% 20.1% 14.2% Bayesian: 10.1% 70.1% 34.1% 10.1% 4.6% 15.5% 18.5% 3.5% Consensus: 18.4% 58.9% 36.5% 19.8% 16.2% 23.1% 19.8% 11.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162016 OTTO 11/22/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162016 OTTO 11/22/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 4( 6) 6( 12) 8( 19) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 69 72 76 77 81 70 44 41 37 34 32 33 37 40 41 40 18HR AGO 65 64 67 71 72 76 65 39 36 32 29 27 28 32 35 36 35 12HR AGO 65 62 61 65 66 70 59 33 30 26 23 21 22 26 29 30 29 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 56 60 49 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT