* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTTO AL162016 11/22/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 67 70 71 73 76 75 70 62 59 56 59 63 66 68 67 V (KT) LAND 60 64 67 70 71 73 76 52 43 36 33 29 32 36 39 41 40 V (KT) LGEM 60 64 67 69 70 73 76 53 43 42 41 38 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 15 18 17 16 14 15 17 22 25 24 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -4 -4 -3 -5 -3 -4 -3 0 3 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 137 136 137 142 148 124 138 130 136 131 134 114 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.7 28.0 27.4 26.9 27.8 28.4 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 144 145 146 146 149 146 136 128 123 134 142 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 136 137 138 140 141 145 143 134 126 121 134 142 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -53.4 -53.1 -53.6 -53.4 -54.1 -53.8 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 6 4 4 5 4 4 4 5 4 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 59 61 63 67 71 74 72 72 71 70 66 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 17 18 18 18 18 19 16 13 11 12 11 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 48 54 52 55 64 64 68 65 57 70 47 12 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 79 82 79 66 60 66 63 66 69 61 73 72 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 2 0 1 6 8 11 9 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 94 95 101 124 157 172 67 -85 48 246 358 471 570 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.7 10.9 10.8 10.7 10.6 10.3 10.1 9.8 9.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.2 79.4 79.6 80.0 80.4 81.6 82.9 84.5 86.3 88.2 90.1 92.1 94.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 49 47 46 41 39 40 35 10 3 1 3 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):185/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -5. -6. -5. -3. -1. 1. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -5. -10. -14. -13. -16. -17. -17. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 11. 13. 16. 15. 10. 2. -1. -4. -1. 3. 6. 8. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 10.4 79.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162016 OTTO 11/22/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 12.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.68 6.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 44.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.27 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 6.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 5.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.45 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.48 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 204.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.72 2.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.95 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 4.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 9.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 37% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.0% 53.0% 40.0% 29.9% 23.3% 36.5% 24.5% 18.8% Logistic: 16.9% 48.8% 30.1% 15.3% 15.1% 24.0% 23.0% 16.3% Bayesian: 11.7% 67.4% 31.4% 9.8% 3.6% 13.0% 15.0% 1.7% Consensus: 17.5% 56.4% 33.8% 18.3% 14.0% 24.5% 20.8% 12.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162016 OTTO 11/22/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162016 OTTO 11/22/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 4( 7) 4( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 64 67 70 71 73 76 52 43 36 33 29 32 36 39 41 40 18HR AGO 60 59 62 65 66 68 71 47 38 31 28 24 27 31 34 36 35 12HR AGO 60 57 56 59 60 62 65 41 32 25 22 18 21 25 28 30 29 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 51 53 56 32 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT