* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OTTO AL162016 11/21/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 54 56 57 60 67 75 82 77 73 65 61 65 68 71 70 V (KT) LAND 45 50 54 56 57 60 67 75 82 52 41 34 30 33 36 39 39 V (KT) LGEM 45 51 55 57 58 60 63 69 72 49 40 38 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 19 20 19 17 16 15 15 11 18 16 20 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -7 -7 -5 -4 -5 -7 -5 -4 0 5 6 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 152 153 155 155 145 145 116 116 95 125 106 116 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 28.5 28.1 27.5 27.6 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 146 146 146 147 147 149 142 137 129 130 135 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 134 136 137 137 138 141 141 144 138 134 125 127 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -53.0 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 6 5 6 5 5 5 5 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 60 58 57 56 56 61 64 66 66 69 71 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 17 17 16 16 18 20 21 18 16 11 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 63 60 63 69 63 73 71 73 75 70 87 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 88 94 93 83 89 62 106 96 80 56 76 39 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 1 0 5 3 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 192 185 178 173 170 190 190 143 46 -83 30 152 257 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.3 11.2 11.2 11.1 11.0 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.2 79.3 79.4 79.6 79.8 80.5 81.3 82.1 83.2 84.6 86.1 87.6 89.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 0 1 2 2 2 4 4 4 6 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 36 35 36 35 35 36 40 45 29 10 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 20. 22. 23. 23. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. 1. 3. 4. -2. -5. -13. -18. -18. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 11. 12. 15. 22. 30. 37. 32. 28. 20. 16. 20. 23. 26. 25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 11.3 79.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162016 OTTO 11/21/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 7.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.64 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.22 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.57 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.55 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.19 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 161.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.96 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 38% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.0% 31.8% 19.6% 9.7% 8.9% 15.0% 23.5% 37.6% Logistic: 6.5% 37.6% 22.2% 18.5% 9.5% 21.2% 16.6% 17.7% Bayesian: 6.2% 12.0% 4.2% 0.2% 0.1% 1.6% 17.2% 0.3% Consensus: 6.9% 27.2% 15.3% 9.5% 6.1% 12.6% 19.1% 18.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162016 OTTO 11/21/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162016 OTTO 11/21/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 50 54 56 57 60 67 75 82 52 41 34 30 33 36 39 39 18HR AGO 45 44 48 50 51 54 61 69 76 46 35 28 24 27 30 33 33 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 44 47 54 62 69 39 28 21 17 20 23 26 26 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 39 46 54 61 31 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT