* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEYMOUR EP202016 10/28/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 35 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 35 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 34 26 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 45 44 42 40 40 42 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 -4 -3 -1 -1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 237 243 250 255 259 265 252 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.4 23.7 23.4 23.1 22.8 22.3 21.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 106 99 95 92 89 83 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -54.2 -54.5 -54.7 -55.1 -55.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 39 35 31 27 24 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 11 8 6 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -3 -11 -11 -18 -40 -56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 10 12 2 -5 -12 3 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 19 19 12 4 17 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1069 991 916 837 759 635 516 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.6 22.4 23.1 23.8 24.4 25.6 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.1 122.8 122.5 122.1 121.6 120.9 120.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 9 CX,CY: -1/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 768 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -11. -15. -18. -22. -24. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -12. -21. -33. -43. -51. -55. -58. -60. -64. -70. -74. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -6. -10. -12. -12. -10. -8. -7. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -13. -15. -16. -15. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 3. 3. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -11. -11. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -10. -19. -26. -30. -39. -48. -61. -73. -84. -94.-101.-107.-114.-121.-130.-138. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 21.6 123.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/28/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.20 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 51.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 396.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.77 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.49 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/28/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##