* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEYMOUR EP202016 10/26/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 131 127 117 107 85 62 44 30 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 130 131 127 117 107 85 62 44 30 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 130 129 122 111 98 76 56 42 33 26 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 8 9 14 18 23 30 30 30 31 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 3 6 6 13 5 -1 -1 -3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 153 171 193 216 229 223 234 242 236 238 238 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.5 27.7 26.9 26.4 25.5 24.9 24.8 24.7 24.6 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 150 141 132 127 116 109 107 106 105 102 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -53.3 -53.7 -54.1 -54.4 -54.7 -54.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 60 58 57 54 52 46 37 32 30 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 24 21 22 19 14 11 8 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -21 -24 -30 -45 -31 -4 -3 8 -7 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 85 63 60 59 75 44 3 -9 -13 21 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 -3 0 1 3 4 5 4 5 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1147 1164 1191 1198 1212 1197 1149 1131 1130 1138 1158 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.7 17.2 17.8 18.4 19.5 20.3 20.7 21.1 21.4 21.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.4 119.4 120.4 121.1 121.8 122.5 122.8 123.0 123.4 123.8 124.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 8 5 3 2 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 27 14 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -12. -23. -37. -49. -60. -69. -77. -82. -84. -85. -87. -91. -95. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -8. -13. -15. -14. -12. -10. -11. -13. -16. -18. -19. -15. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. -0. -2. -4. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -8. -15. -21. -24. -26. -24. -22. -20. -18. -17. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -3. -13. -23. -45. -68. -86.-100.-110.-120.-125.-128.-130.-132.-133.-133. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 16.2 118.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/26/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 10.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 30.9 to 7.7 0.28 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.53 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 822.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.03 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.22 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/26/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##