* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEYMOUR EP202016 10/24/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 69 76 83 89 98 98 92 78 64 45 30 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 69 76 83 89 98 98 92 78 64 45 30 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 68 75 81 86 94 95 85 69 52 38 27 20 15 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 6 4 2 3 8 13 16 22 30 40 38 45 44 43 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 1 4 3 1 0 3 7 11 2 3 0 -3 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 29 85 155 213 244 241 244 223 239 232 253 270 285 285 286 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.5 28.0 28.0 25.9 25.2 24.2 23.6 23.0 22.9 22.9 22.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 155 154 150 150 145 144 122 114 103 96 90 88 88 88 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.7 -52.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -53.5 -53.0 -53.7 -53.7 -54.4 -54.7 -55.1 -55.6 -56.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 5 4 3 2 2 2 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 62 61 59 62 65 62 59 55 51 45 36 31 27 24 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 14 13 13 18 19 19 17 15 10 7 4 2 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -22 -16 -13 -13 -4 -16 -29 -63 -30 -46 -34 -47 -63 -71 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 83 90 102 69 35 36 60 77 61 43 -3 -37 -27 -18 -9 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -3 -6 -5 -2 1 7 8 6 5 6 4 8 -5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 654 738 833 841 870 983 1032 1046 1017 890 775 670 588 535 475 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.2 16.7 17.6 18.9 20.4 22.1 23.3 24.1 24.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.1 110.5 111.8 113.1 114.3 116.7 118.6 120.2 121.0 121.2 120.9 120.3 119.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 11 10 9 8 7 5 4 3 3 3 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 17 20 19 19 21 15 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 59.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. -0. -3. -6. -10. -14. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. -1. -7. -11. -17. -22. -27. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 1. 4. 6. 8. 6. 3. -3. -6. -10. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 16. 9. 2. -2. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 16. 23. 29. 38. 38. 32. 18. 4. -15. -30. -45. -57. -66. -71. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 15.0 109.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/24/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.55 13.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 14.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.60 11.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 75.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.57 10.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 296.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.58 -10.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 15.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 11.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.16 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.62 0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 55% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 79% is 6.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 71% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 68% is 10.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 12.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 46% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 54.7% 78.7% 71.1% 67.7% 54.3% 46.4% 31.3% 12.7% Logistic: 55.9% 68.3% 72.6% 68.4% 37.8% 66.1% 27.8% 1.9% Bayesian: 36.1% 60.0% 52.1% 40.5% 2.9% 31.0% 9.2% 0.0% Consensus: 48.9% 69.0% 65.3% 58.8% 31.7% 47.9% 22.7% 4.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202016 SEYMOUR 10/24/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##