* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTY EP202016 10/23/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 40 45 52 67 78 82 86 82 77 71 57 46 33 29 25 V (KT) LAND 30 35 40 45 52 67 78 82 86 82 77 71 57 46 33 29 25 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 43 53 66 77 82 79 68 56 44 34 27 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 9 8 6 4 4 8 9 12 13 15 27 39 37 41 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -4 -4 -1 0 0 -2 -1 0 4 12 10 -9 -7 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 291 308 315 329 22 116 207 201 232 238 232 227 250 246 239 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.6 30.5 30.4 29.9 29.5 28.9 28.1 28.5 27.9 26.6 25.7 25.1 24.5 24.5 24.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 173 171 170 165 161 154 146 150 143 129 119 112 106 106 101 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 -52.5 -53.0 -52.4 -53.1 -52.8 -53.2 -52.9 -53.8 -54.2 -55.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 73 73 71 68 65 65 65 64 62 62 55 39 28 24 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 10 10 11 13 15 16 20 20 20 19 15 13 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -64 -40 -25 -15 -20 -22 -24 -20 -18 -20 -29 17 12 11 10 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 78 81 88 88 81 102 79 64 72 86 82 59 0 -2 -3 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -3 -1 -1 0 0 2 3 8 3 0 1 2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 546 553 578 609 646 792 829 923 997 1037 1091 1120 1154 1222 1299 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.8 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.7 16.3 16.8 17.5 18.4 19.2 20.0 20.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 104.3 105.5 106.7 107.9 109.0 111.4 113.7 116.0 117.9 119.6 121.0 122.0 123.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 12 12 12 12 11 10 9 9 7 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 47 42 47 38 22 20 16 23 14 2 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 677 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 50.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -0. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 28. 29. 29. 28. 27. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. -4. -7. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 17. 16. 14. 8. 5. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 12. 7. 2. -2. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 15. 22. 37. 48. 52. 56. 52. 47. 41. 27. 16. 3. -1. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.3 104.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202016 TWENTY 10/23/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.92 16.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 7.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.72 9.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.60 7.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 52.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.85 -10.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 7.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.36 2.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.68 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 60% is 4.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 65% is 10.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 59% is 12.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.3% 60.3% 44.0% 27.9% 0.0% 0.0% 64.6% 58.6% Logistic: 19.9% 65.0% 54.1% 37.9% 28.6% 65.6% 70.4% 45.6% Bayesian: 6.6% 39.6% 36.1% 14.1% 2.8% 31.2% 26.2% 14.1% Consensus: 14.0% 55.0% 44.7% 26.7% 10.5% 32.3% 53.7% 39.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202016 TWENTY 10/23/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##