* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/17/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 64 62 59 57 49 47 45 44 43 42 40 38 36 36 35 V (KT) LAND 65 65 64 62 59 57 49 47 45 44 43 42 40 38 36 36 35 V (KT) LGEM 65 64 63 61 59 55 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 6 9 16 18 21 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 1 7 16 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 191 199 204 154 173 159 190 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 21.2 20.2 17.2 15.3 13.0 7.6 7.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 86 84 76 74 71 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 78 76 72 70 68 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.1 -56.2 -55.9 -54.8 -53.3 -51.5 -49.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.8 1.0 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 3.7 3.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 55 52 54 57 34 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 41 39 39 38 38 41 34 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 183 184 209 281 294 283 274 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 48 45 50 56 39 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -13 -6 21 -14 0 -51 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 932 926 963 1008 1099 1318 1536 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 41.8 43.7 45.5 47.9 50.2 54.8 59.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 43.6 42.1 40.6 39.3 38.0 35.9 33.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 21 23 25 24 24 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 15 CX,CY: 11/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 727 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -6. -8. -11. -14. -19. -24. -29. -34. -37. -41. -44. -47. -49. -50. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 4. 1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -0. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 16. 16. 17. 20. 21. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -16. -18. -20. -21. -22. -23. -25. -27. -29. -29. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 41.8 43.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/17/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.57 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 7.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.36 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 252.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 66.3 104.5 to 0.0 0.37 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/17/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/17/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 65 64 62 59 57 49 47 45 44 43 42 40 38 36 36 35 18HR AGO 65 64 63 61 58 56 48 46 44 43 42 41 39 37 35 35 34 12HR AGO 65 62 61 59 56 54 46 44 42 41 40 39 37 35 33 33 32 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 52 50 42 40 38 37 36 35 33 31 29 29 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT