* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/17/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 63 63 61 54 48 41 25 24 24 24 24 22 22 22 21 V (KT) LAND 65 64 63 63 61 54 48 41 25 24 24 24 24 22 22 22 21 V (KT) LGEM 65 63 62 61 59 57 54 47 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 3 8 7 10 12 29 9 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -5 -1 2 16 3 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 227 246 200 185 147 145 125 157 174 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 21.9 21.8 21.4 18.7 16.7 11.8 7.5 8.1 8.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 86 87 86 79 75 70 68 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 76 77 77 73 71 68 67 66 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.9 -56.5 -56.1 -56.0 -53.4 -52.5 -50.7 -50.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.0 1.4 1.4 1.0 0.3 -0.1 3.6 3.3 2.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 53 57 60 58 59 38 37 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 45 43 40 39 37 35 37 33 23 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 194 173 179 196 232 297 293 257 269 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 13 47 52 47 28 38 47 -140 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -11 -6 -17 -28 -178 -15 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 904 875 867 875 910 1074 1327 1505 1414 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.7 41.8 42.9 44.7 46.5 51.0 55.5 59.8 64.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.5 44.5 43.5 42.2 40.9 38.5 35.8 32.3 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 17 20 22 24 24 23 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 729 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -5. -8. -10. -14. -18. -24. -30. -34. -37. -41. -44. -48. -49. -51. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 5. 1. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -17. -32. -34. -36. -37. -37. -36. -35. -33. -32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 20. 20. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -4. -11. -17. -24. -40. -41. -41. -41. -41. -43. -43. -43. -44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 40.7 45.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/17/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 45.1 to 6.7 0.81 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.32 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 259.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 77.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.26 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/17/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/17/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 64 63 63 61 54 48 41 25 24 24 24 24 22 22 22 21 18HR AGO 65 64 63 63 61 54 48 41 25 24 24 24 24 22 22 22 21 12HR AGO 65 62 61 61 59 52 46 39 23 22 22 22 22 20 20 20 19 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 53 46 40 33 17 16 16 16 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT