* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/16/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 68 67 65 65 62 61 57 45 44 43 43 42 39 36 34 33 V (KT) LAND 70 68 67 65 65 62 61 57 45 44 43 43 42 39 36 34 33 V (KT) LGEM 70 67 64 62 60 61 63 59 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 24 17 11 6 8 3 16 26 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 -2 -3 3 17 -1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 241 235 237 231 231 166 184 108 169 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.1 22.9 22.6 21.0 20.5 16.4 11.0 7.5 7.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 98 90 90 84 83 75 70 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 84 77 78 75 75 71 68 67 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.6 -55.1 -55.8 -56.3 -56.6 -54.0 -53.2 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.8 2.9 2.1 1.9 1.6 0.2 -0.5 3.8 3.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 54 56 58 59 62 65 47 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 47 46 45 42 41 38 42 44 38 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 194 192 194 178 161 198 297 319 308 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 47 38 40 48 67 65 10 44 -103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 -4 -4 7 20 -96 -45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1000 988 982 962 962 1017 1167 1339 1463 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.4 40.0 40.5 41.6 42.7 46.4 51.2 56.2 61.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.9 45.1 44.4 43.3 42.3 39.5 37.2 35.7 34.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 10 14 17 23 25 26 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 11 CX,CY: 10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -5. -8. -10. -14. -19. -26. -33. -38. -41. -45. -48. -52. -53. -55. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 6. 2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -8. -7. -16. -18. -19. -20. -20. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 15. 15. 16. 19. 19. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -5. -8. -9. -13. -25. -26. -27. -27. -28. -31. -34. -36. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 39.4 45.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/16/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 45.1 to 6.7 0.71 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 7.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.36 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 252.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.67 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 77.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.26 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/16/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/16/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 3( 7) 2( 9) 0( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 68 67 65 65 62 61 57 45 44 43 43 42 39 36 34 33 18HR AGO 70 69 68 66 66 63 62 58 46 45 44 44 43 40 37 35 34 12HR AGO 70 67 66 64 64 61 60 56 44 43 42 42 41 38 35 33 32 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 60 57 56 52 40 39 38 38 37 34 31 29 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT