* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/16/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 74 72 70 68 66 60 53 53 40 20 19 19 18 17 17 17 V (KT) LAND 75 74 72 70 68 66 60 53 53 40 20 19 19 18 17 17 17 V (KT) LGEM 75 73 71 69 66 62 62 63 59 49 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 24 19 17 6 7 10 13 26 11 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -8 -4 -4 -3 -3 0 19 8 4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 225 234 233 230 228 237 151 175 142 183 187 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.1 24.2 24.2 23.4 22.4 21.3 17.2 12.0 7.5 8.0 8.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 97 97 97 93 89 86 76 70 68 68 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 82 81 81 78 77 77 72 68 67 67 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -53.3 -54.3 -54.9 -55.4 -56.5 -55.9 -53.4 -51.6 -50.9 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 3.2 3.0 2.6 2.8 2.1 1.2 0.4 -0.4 3.5 3.5 2.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 57 56 55 55 56 57 52 45 40 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 50 49 49 48 45 43 39 38 45 37 26 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 200 199 202 199 203 177 188 313 316 249 290 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 41 38 25 34 58 54 14 54 15 -197 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -17 -2 0 0 -1 -3 1 16 -49 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 941 953 968 963 963 925 943 1121 1353 1564 1381 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.1 39.3 39.4 39.8 40.2 42.3 46.1 50.9 55.7 60.3 65.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.0 47.3 46.6 45.9 45.2 43.2 40.6 37.8 35.4 33.5 31.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 10 17 23 25 24 24 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 8 CX,CY: 8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -9. -11. -15. -20. -28. -35. -42. -47. -51. -54. -58. -59. -61. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 4. -1. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -14. -17. -11. -22. -40. -41. -40. -39. -38. -36. -35. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. 15. 15. 16. 19. 19. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -15. -22. -22. -35. -55. -56. -56. -57. -58. -58. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 39.1 48.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/16/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 4.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.38 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 226.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.69 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 86.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.18 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/16/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/16/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 4( 9) 3( 12) 3( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 74 72 70 68 66 60 53 53 40 20 19 19 18 17 17 17 18HR AGO 75 74 72 70 68 66 60 53 53 40 20 19 19 18 17 17 17 12HR AGO 75 72 71 69 67 65 59 52 52 39 19 18 18 17 16 16 16 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 63 61 55 48 48 35 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT