* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/15/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 56 57 58 58 56 55 55 55 53 51 44 33 19 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 57 56 57 58 58 56 55 55 55 53 51 44 33 19 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 57 56 55 53 48 46 48 53 56 57 54 49 45 44 41 38 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 49 50 47 42 30 18 11 7 7 2 15 27 3 14 24 33 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 3 5 -1 0 -4 0 -2 -4 9 15 4 0 0 13 15 15 SHEAR DIR 235 232 230 220 230 234 274 249 230 267 155 150 152 203 227 229 214 SST (C) 25.4 24.7 25.2 24.5 24.1 24.4 24.4 22.6 21.4 17.2 13.9 10.2 8.3 9.0 8.8 8.4 9.2 POT. INT. (KT) 111 104 107 101 97 98 99 89 86 75 70 67 66 66 66 65 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 97 90 91 85 82 82 82 77 77 70 67 65 65 65 64 64 64 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -53.0 -52.3 -52.3 -54.1 -55.3 -56.3 -56.6 -56.8 -54.3 -52.8 -51.7 -52.7 -53.4 -54.1 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.4 1.4 1.8 1.5 2.6 2.3 1.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.7 3.4 2.0 0.9 -0.1 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 3 2 2 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 42 43 45 47 52 61 59 60 61 58 48 34 44 54 62 71 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 42 47 50 51 50 46 43 41 40 41 42 39 34 27 14 4 850 MB ENV VOR 87 117 153 165 174 176 186 171 156 194 268 265 213 186 129 79 67 200 MB DIV 61 65 93 70 6 46 37 46 64 49 29 53 44 54 -2 -57 -146 700-850 TADV -10 -24 -12 -25 -9 -4 -1 0 9 8 -50 -31 -16 -4 20 170 83 LAND (KM) 1067 1012 971 964 966 983 967 937 905 952 1078 1247 1474 1327 1273 1255 1331 LAT (DEG N) 37.1 37.6 38.1 38.4 38.6 38.9 39.5 40.5 42.5 45.6 48.8 51.8 54.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 54.1 52.6 51.0 49.9 48.8 47.4 46.4 45.2 43.3 40.7 38.3 36.2 33.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 13 11 9 7 5 6 10 15 18 17 17 17 17 16 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 21 CX,CY: 19/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -20. -23. -27. -31. -35. -38. -40. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -7. -7. -9. -9. -10. -12. -15. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 4. 7. 9. 9. 7. 4. 1. -1. -0. 0. -5. -13. -21. -35. -45. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -9. -16. -27. -41. -61. -75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 37.1 54.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/15/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 57.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.02 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.41 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.81 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 296.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.62 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 83.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.20 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/15/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/15/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 57 56 57 58 58 56 55 55 55 53 51 44 33 19 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 58 59 60 60 58 57 57 57 55 53 46 35 21 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 57 58 58 56 55 55 55 53 51 44 33 19 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 51 51 49 48 48 48 46 44 37 26 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT