* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/14/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 60 57 57 58 58 56 53 53 52 54 54 47 35 26 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 60 57 57 58 58 56 53 53 52 54 54 47 35 26 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 61 59 58 57 51 46 47 51 56 58 56 49 46 46 45 42 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 46 52 51 49 40 20 18 8 8 4 13 21 8 15 19 24 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 3 2 0 -1 -5 2 -3 2 14 11 6 3 -1 7 15 SHEAR DIR 233 232 235 231 221 245 252 284 254 272 183 173 206 182 210 210 222 SST (C) 25.4 25.6 24.9 24.9 25.0 24.3 24.4 24.1 22.2 20.5 17.5 13.9 9.4 8.5 9.6 8.7 9.3 POT. INT. (KT) 111 112 106 105 105 98 99 97 88 82 75 70 67 66 67 67 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 97 97 91 89 88 82 82 82 77 74 70 67 65 65 65 65 65 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.7 -52.2 -53.0 -52.5 -53.4 -55.0 -56.1 -56.8 -57.1 -55.5 -53.9 -51.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.3 2.0 1.9 1.7 0.2 -0.2 0.3 2.1 2.6 2.7 2.5 1.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 42 40 43 42 45 57 59 60 59 59 53 33 42 51 57 66 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 39 43 47 51 52 48 45 43 42 45 46 43 37 33 26 14 850 MB ENV VOR 98 94 124 163 175 191 182 163 155 166 238 265 263 205 161 56 73 200 MB DIV 37 67 68 93 65 10 34 59 62 59 22 34 16 31 54 -9 -81 700-850 TADV -9 -16 -22 -11 -23 -6 -2 7 4 22 41 -32 -32 -16 -14 -2 2 LAND (KM) 1073 1075 1033 995 970 972 977 963 914 902 966 1112 1374 1341 1198 1169 1204 LAT (DEG N) 36.2 36.8 37.4 37.8 38.2 38.6 39.0 39.7 41.2 43.4 46.1 49.3 52.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 56.6 54.9 53.1 51.8 50.4 48.6 47.3 46.1 44.6 42.6 40.3 37.8 34.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 13 11 10 7 6 7 11 15 17 19 19 19 19 18 18 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 17 CX,CY: 15/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -19. -23. -27. -31. -35. -40. -42. -45. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -9. -11. -13. -15. -14. -13. -11. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. -13. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 4. 1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 6. 10. 12. 10. 7. 5. 2. 6. 7. 2. -6. -12. -20. -33. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -8. -7. -7. -9. -12. -12. -13. -11. -11. -18. -30. -39. -52. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 36.2 56.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/14/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 62.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.74 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.44 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.66 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 375.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.54 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 87.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.16 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/14/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/14/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 60 57 57 58 58 56 53 53 52 54 54 47 35 26 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 61 61 62 62 60 57 57 56 58 58 51 39 30 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 61 62 62 60 57 57 56 58 58 51 39 30 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 56 56 54 51 51 50 52 52 45 33 24 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT