* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/14/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 61 56 54 53 52 52 48 46 45 47 47 37 28 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 61 56 54 53 52 52 48 46 45 47 47 37 28 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 63 59 57 56 51 45 44 48 54 58 55 47 43 42 44 44 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 48 49 54 54 51 31 14 13 9 7 14 25 15 6 19 28 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 6 5 3 -1 -1 0 -2 0 4 11 -3 -5 5 17 12 SHEAR DIR 237 232 233 233 228 226 234 268 231 187 165 202 177 190 200 225 224 SST (C) 25.2 25.4 25.7 25.2 24.8 24.1 24.4 24.4 23.8 21.5 20.4 17.0 13.8 10.1 9.1 10.1 9.7 POT. INT. (KT) 109 111 113 108 104 97 99 98 96 85 82 74 70 67 67 67 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 96 97 97 93 89 82 82 82 81 75 74 69 67 66 65 65 65 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -53.0 -52.6 -54.5 -55.6 -56.1 -56.2 -55.7 -54.3 -53.9 -53.6 -53.4 -52.9 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.2 2.6 2.3 1.3 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.5 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 43 42 41 42 48 57 55 56 57 50 38 31 46 55 57 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 36 39 43 47 51 50 46 43 41 42 44 37 32 26 20 15 850 MB ENV VOR 75 91 96 115 160 183 178 190 172 156 211 233 173 141 120 147 94 200 MB DIV 51 41 63 76 99 14 35 28 33 55 54 21 40 37 42 47 -9 700-850 TADV -19 -14 -16 -27 -14 -9 -3 0 1 8 17 9 -19 -13 -8 34 107 LAND (KM) 1044 1056 1055 1033 982 940 965 985 968 928 926 1000 1199 1496 1239 1098 1023 LAT (DEG N) 35.6 36.3 36.9 37.4 37.9 38.6 38.8 39.0 39.8 41.5 43.8 46.5 49.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 58.9 57.0 55.1 53.6 52.0 49.8 48.2 47.1 45.8 44.0 42.0 39.7 36.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 15 13 12 8 6 5 9 12 15 17 18 19 18 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 16 CX,CY: 14/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 640 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -17. -22. -27. -31. -35. -40. -44. -47. -49. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -15. -20. -21. -20. -19. -16. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 4. 7. 11. 13. 9. 5. 2. 3. 4. -6. -13. -21. -27. -32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -9. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. -22. -24. -25. -23. -23. -33. -42. -53. -65. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 35.6 58.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/14/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 68.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.44 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.67 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 418.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.49 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 86.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.17 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/14/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/14/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 61 56 54 53 52 52 48 46 45 47 47 37 28 17 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 64 62 61 60 60 56 54 53 55 55 45 36 25 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 64 63 62 62 58 56 55 57 57 47 38 27 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 59 58 58 54 52 51 53 53 43 34 23 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT