* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/14/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 66 59 56 53 53 52 52 48 49 47 51 41 28 25 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 66 59 56 53 53 52 52 48 49 47 51 41 28 25 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 67 61 59 58 55 50 47 48 53 57 57 49 43 43 41 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 41 43 46 50 49 42 23 11 5 9 10 19 23 16 13 22 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 6 5 6 6 -1 -1 -2 0 -1 -1 16 17 2 -1 11 18 SHEAR DIR 244 241 237 234 234 231 229 243 264 222 171 186 178 196 215 208 213 SST (C) 25.8 25.2 25.5 25.6 24.7 24.5 24.1 24.5 23.9 22.4 20.2 16.4 13.8 10.8 9.4 10.8 10.4 POT. INT. (KT) 115 109 112 112 104 101 97 99 96 89 82 74 70 67 66 66 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 101 97 98 98 90 85 81 82 80 77 74 69 67 65 64 64 64 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.9 -53.5 -54.9 -56.0 -55.9 -56.1 -55.2 -54.3 -53.6 -54.1 -54.2 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.3 2.2 2.1 1.7 0.9 -0.2 -0.4 0.7 1.8 2.1 0.7 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 42 44 43 44 44 45 54 57 58 58 59 55 43 37 46 50 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 36 36 39 42 49 51 49 44 43 41 44 40 32 30 25 8 850 MB ENV VOR 66 76 85 87 112 169 188 181 171 174 164 208 225 170 129 59 49 200 MB DIV 60 42 42 57 84 58 2 35 51 42 44 8 29 10 22 22 53 700-850 TADV -7 -16 -10 -14 -12 -21 -6 -2 5 -2 13 37 -4 -16 -14 -22 18 LAND (KM) 1049 1066 1061 1065 1001 944 944 954 949 946 970 1097 1307 1468 1206 1021 944 LAT (DEG N) 35.0 35.7 36.4 37.1 37.7 38.5 38.9 39.2 39.8 40.8 42.8 45.7 48.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.2 58.3 56.3 54.5 52.7 50.1 48.5 47.4 46.2 44.6 42.1 38.7 35.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 17 16 13 9 6 5 7 11 17 19 19 17 16 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 18 CX,CY: 14/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -14. -20. -26. -31. -36. -40. -45. -50. -53. -55. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -12. -16. -22. -24. -22. -19. -16. -13. -13. -14. -14. -14. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -5. -5. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 3. 10. 13. 12. 6. 3. 0. 4. -2. -13. -16. -22. -40. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -9. -16. -19. -22. -22. -23. -23. -27. -26. -28. -24. -34. -47. -50. -60. -80. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 35.0 60.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/14/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 63.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.40 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.68 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 474.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.44 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 75.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.28 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/14/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/14/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 0( 5) 0( 5) 0( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 66 59 56 53 53 52 52 48 49 47 51 41 28 25 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 75 74 67 64 61 61 60 60 56 57 55 59 49 36 33 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 75 72 71 68 65 65 64 64 60 61 59 63 53 40 37 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 62 62 61 61 57 58 56 60 50 37 34 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT