* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/13/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 101 98 93 86 75 69 71 70 70 66 63 63 63 57 52 42 V (KT) LAND 100 101 98 93 86 75 69 71 70 70 66 63 63 63 57 52 42 V (KT) LGEM 100 102 98 94 89 82 74 66 57 51 51 54 57 57 54 50 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 24 27 30 41 47 53 44 24 14 8 15 14 11 16 20 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 4 8 7 5 6 5 1 0 3 -2 1 0 -2 4 5 SHEAR DIR 221 226 229 224 236 236 236 223 220 257 262 225 202 182 243 235 246 SST (C) 28.4 27.3 27.0 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.2 24.5 25.0 24.9 24.1 23.3 21.3 22.6 18.8 16.6 16.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 128 125 127 125 122 117 101 103 101 95 91 82 89 76 72 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 112 109 111 110 106 101 86 85 82 78 76 72 77 69 67 66 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -51.2 -51.2 -51.6 -51.8 -52.2 -52.0 -53.2 -54.9 -55.9 -55.2 -55.1 -54.3 -53.9 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.3 1.3 2.0 3.0 2.9 1.1 1.2 0.3 1.0 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 2 2 2 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 50 50 50 46 46 41 43 44 52 58 59 58 61 58 58 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 33 34 36 36 41 44 52 53 52 49 46 46 47 42 39 34 850 MB ENV VOR 79 68 67 57 49 73 117 176 188 189 175 153 139 146 175 167 129 200 MB DIV 77 60 66 76 53 52 75 90 8 23 8 10 34 59 31 50 50 700-850 TADV 18 17 11 8 7 -19 -12 -19 1 -1 0 0 9 7 1 17 3 LAND (KM) 1094 1077 1073 1131 1097 1023 993 944 900 903 881 825 757 685 680 771 903 LAT (DEG N) 29.6 30.6 31.6 32.6 33.6 35.5 37.1 38.2 38.7 38.8 39.1 39.7 40.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.5 65.8 65.2 64.0 62.8 59.6 56.2 53.2 51.4 50.5 50.0 49.7 48.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 13 14 15 16 15 10 6 3 3 4 7 9 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 20 7 7 8 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 9 CX,CY: 2/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -10. -18. -28. -38. -47. -55. -61. -66. -72. -75. -78. -79. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -16. -26. -32. -34. -32. -25. -19. -16. -13. -10. -8. -8. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 12. 22. 24. 23. 19. 14. 12. 12. 5. 1. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -2. -7. -14. -25. -31. -29. -30. -30. -34. -37. -37. -37. -43. -48. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 29.6 66.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/13/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 40.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.12 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.44 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 610.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.29 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.7% 1.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 7.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/13/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/13/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 21( 38) 10( 45) 5( 47) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 1 0( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 101 98 93 86 75 69 71 70 70 66 63 63 63 57 52 42 18HR AGO 100 99 96 91 84 73 67 69 68 68 64 61 61 61 55 50 40 12HR AGO 100 97 96 91 84 73 67 69 68 68 64 61 61 61 55 50 40 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 83 72 66 68 67 67 63 60 60 60 54 49 39 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 70 64 66 65 65 61 58 58 58 52 47 37 IN 6HR 100 101 92 86 83 77 71 73 72 72 68 65 65 65 59 54 44 IN 12HR 100 101 98 89 83 79 73 75 74 74 70 67 67 67 61 56 46