* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NICOLE AL152016 10/12/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 96 95 92 89 79 75 76 79 75 73 70 69 69 64 57 53 V (KT) LAND 95 96 95 92 89 79 75 76 79 75 73 70 69 69 64 57 53 V (KT) LGEM 95 98 97 94 90 83 77 71 61 52 50 54 58 58 56 53 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 20 25 27 28 43 47 50 40 17 12 11 12 10 12 11 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 3 8 9 6 3 0 -4 1 0 2 -2 -2 -2 4 SHEAR DIR 226 226 229 235 229 239 234 226 231 222 276 255 213 213 236 250 219 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 27.5 27.1 27.1 26.8 26.3 25.6 23.5 24.6 24.6 24.3 23.3 21.5 21.9 17.8 12.8 POT. INT. (KT) 140 142 131 126 127 124 119 111 94 99 98 96 91 84 87 74 67 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 123 113 110 111 109 103 94 80 82 80 78 77 73 76 68 64 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -51.9 -51.5 -51.4 -52.0 -52.1 -51.7 -53.2 -54.5 -56.1 -55.9 -55.6 -55.2 -55.6 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.1 2.0 3.5 2.7 2.1 1.0 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 3 2 2 2 3 3 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 52 49 51 50 48 45 44 42 49 53 56 57 59 61 63 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 30 31 32 34 36 41 48 54 51 48 46 45 44 41 37 37 850 MB ENV VOR 86 84 68 65 54 58 96 136 190 190 177 165 153 158 157 126 127 200 MB DIV 78 74 61 60 73 51 106 75 47 6 4 36 42 52 49 59 66 700-850 TADV 13 17 17 14 10 2 -15 -21 -6 0 0 5 4 -6 -4 4 -13 LAND (KM) 1048 1101 1072 1087 1118 1050 1001 947 857 857 871 866 815 727 649 666 749 LAT (DEG N) 28.7 29.6 30.5 31.5 32.5 34.6 36.5 38.1 39.0 39.1 39.1 39.2 39.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.8 66.4 66.0 65.1 64.2 61.4 58.1 54.9 52.6 51.3 50.5 50.2 49.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 11 13 14 16 16 12 7 4 2 2 5 8 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 21 19 9 8 9 5 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -14. -22. -32. -40. -47. -52. -57. -63. -66. -69. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -11. -19. -24. -28. -29. -25. -19. -16. -13. -11. -9. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 20. 29. 25. 22. 18. 15. 13. 8. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -3. -6. -16. -20. -19. -16. -20. -22. -25. -26. -26. -31. -38. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 28.7 66.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL152016 NICOLE 10/12/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 32.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.32 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 20.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.46 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.49 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 553.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.96 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 2.9% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 8.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.8% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL152016 NICOLE 10/12/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL152016 NICOLE 10/12/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 17( 31) 11( 39) 7( 43) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 0( 3) 0( 3) 0( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 96 95 92 89 79 75 76 79 75 73 70 69 69 64 57 53 18HR AGO 95 94 93 90 87 77 73 74 77 73 71 68 67 67 62 55 51 12HR AGO 95 92 91 88 85 75 71 72 75 71 69 66 65 65 60 53 49 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 82 72 68 69 72 68 66 63 62 62 57 50 46 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 66 62 63 66 62 60 57 56 56 51 44 40 IN 6HR 95 96 87 81 78 73 69 70 73 69 67 64 63 63 58 51 47 IN 12HR 95 96 95 86 80 76 72 73 76 72 70 67 66 66 61 54 50